LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Special Edition––Biden vs. Trump

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, April 10, 2020

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 49% (Fox News). Without these extremes, the average would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION
Among voters nationwide

NATIONAL POLLING AVERAGES

• Average of 6 polls taken so far in April: Biden +5.7
• Average of 14 polls taken in March: Biden +6.4
• Average of 9 polls taken in February: Biden +5.2

RON’S COMMENT: This is an overview of the 29 national polls testing Biden vs. Trump that were conducted since the Iowa caucus in early February. As you can see, Biden’s general election lead has been remarkably stable throughout this tumultuous nine-week period. These polls were taken by a wide range of pollsters. Biden led 27 of them, Trump led one and one was tied.
 
MOST RECENT NATIONAL POLLS (previously unreported):

• (CNN, April 3-6) Biden over Trump: +11 (53-42)
• (Monmouth, April 3-7) Biden over Trump: +4 (48-44)
• (Fox News, April 4-7) Biden over Trump: even (42-42)

RON’S COMMENT: We see three different pictures of the presidential race in today’s results: One has Biden far ahead, one has him modestly ahead and one has the race tied. Which to believe? We have to wait for more polls…. More on today’s new polls:

• When averaged, these three polls give Biden a 5-point advantage.
• Over the last two weeks, the Fox News poll has Biden falling 7 points and Trump rising 2 points. The other two polls show Biden slightly expanding his lead by 1 point each.
• The Monmouth poll finds 5% of voters would vote for an independent candidate and the Fox News poll finds 7% would vote for someone else. The CNN survey finds less than 1% would vote for someone else.

A note to our readers:
Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions (such as today’s) when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

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