Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 31, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 47%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 45% (Rasmussen) to 49% (Washington Post/ABC). Without these extremes, the average would be 48%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (+1 since yesterday), which is 4 points higher than his approval rating.
A note to our readers: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, with special editions when needed. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Biden over Trump: +10 (55-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Yesterday, we had one poll showing Biden 9 points ahead and one poll had him 2 points ahead. This third poll shows a 10-point advantage… Some have asked: Why is Trump’s job rating up, but he’s still losing to Biden? The best answer we can find in today’s data is that voters like Biden better personally––see national favorability ratings below, which show Biden netting out at +7 and Trump at -10.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Biden over Sanders: +26 (58-32)
RON’S COMMENT: This is Biden’s widest lead over Sanders since mid-March, when it was 29 points.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable (Net +/-)
Centers for Disease Control: 78%/12% (+66)
FEMA: 58%/10% (+48)
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 55%/11% (+44)
Andrew Cuomo: 45%/24% (+21)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 31%/13% (+18)
Joe Biden: 48%/41% (+7)
Amy Klobuchar: 35%/29% (+6)
Mike Pence: 43%/44% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren: 39%/43% (-4)
Donald Trump: 43%/53% (-10)
Hillary Clinton: 38%/53% (-15)
RON’S COMMENT: In this nationwide poll, the best net positive ratings go to the CDC, FEMA, Fauci and Cuomo. They all net out at more than 20 points…. Birx comes close at +18…. Biden does better than Trump (+7 vs. -10)…. Note that Trump’s job rating (today’s average is 47%) is better than his personalrating in this poll (43%).
NEW YORK: CORONAVIRUS JOB RATINGS
Among voters statewide
Now, looking at the coronavirus, or COVID19, pandemic and the national emergency, I ́m going to read you a list of people and institutions and I ́d like you to tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing to address the pandemic?
% = Approve/Disapprove
Gov. Andrew Cuomo: 87%/11%
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 74%/6%
Pres. Donald Trump: 41%/56%
RON’S COMMENT: Cuomo’s rating for handling the coronavirus pandemic is off the charts in his home state of New York, at 87%. It doesn’t get much higher than that. His approval rating on this issue is 95% among Democrats, 87% among independents and––wait for it––70% among Republicans. No wonder Democrats are whispering about replacing Biden with Cuomo as their party’s presidential nominee.
TRUMP APPROVAL ON ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing on …?
% = Approve/Disapprove
Fighting terrorism: 58%/42%
Stimulating jobs: 57%/43%
The economy: 54%/46%
Immigration: 51%/49%
Reacting to coronavirus: 50%/50%
Foreign Affairs: 47%/53%
Administering the government: 47%/53%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are good news for Trump. While he’s 50-50 on handling the coronavirus, he’s in majority territory on economic issues, terrorism and immigration. His pre-existing strength on the economy is carrying him through this unusual period.
PERSONAL FINANCES, ECONOMY
Among voters nationwide
Would you say that your personal financial situation is improving or getting worse?
Improving: 21%
Getting worse: 40%
Just as well off: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: The half-full way to look at this is that 54% of Americans say their personal financial situation is either improving or is the same. The half-empty perspective is that more Americans––by two to one––say things are worsening than improving.
Do you think 6 months from now the economy will be as it is now, going into a recession, or improving further?
Same as it is now: 18%
Going into a recession: 55%
Improving: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of Americans expect the economy to be in a recession in six months, which is a month before the election.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who was the last U.S. senator to be elected by a state legislature? Hint: He later became the 1928 Democratic vice-presidential nominee.
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, FAVORABILITY RATINGS,PERSONAL
FINANCES, ECONOMY, TRUMP APPROVAL ON ISSUES: Harvard-Harris, March 24-26
NEW YORK STATE: Siena College, March 22-26
FOR TRADE GROUPS AND PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES: Now is the time to survey your members. As the coronavirus adds new challenges to a range of professions and businesses, it’s more important than ever that national associations and societies survey their memberships. It’s crucial to stay on top of the issues that are impacting individual members: How is the pandemic affecting business and practices? What are the challenges? How can a national association help? What government policies are needed? Certus Insights, a full-service survey research firm based in the DC area specializes in confidential member surveys and studies. For more information on membership surveys, contact Andrew Rugg at [email protected]. To see the quantitative and qualitative research offerings from Certus, go to link.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Sen. Joseph T. Robinson of Arkansas.
Robinson was elected to the Senate by the Arkansas legislature on January 27, 1913 (which was, incidentally, only 12 days after he became governor). The 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, instituting direct popular election of U.S. senators, went into effect April 8, 1913, making Robinson the last senator elected by a state legislature.
Robinson was nominated for vice-president on the 1928 Democratic ticket with Al Smith. He became Senate Majority Leader in 1933 and died in 1937.
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