Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 17, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 46% (WSJ-NBC, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Biden over Trump: +6 (48-42)
RON’S COMMENT: In this survey, Biden is polling the same percentage Hillary Clinton received in 2016 (48%) and Trump is underpolling his 2016 popular vote by 4 points (46%).
STATES: PRESIDENT
Among voters in each state
FLORIDA
Trump over Biden: +3 (48-45)
Trump over Sanders: +7 (49-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is good news for Trump––showing him leading a key state with a bigger margin than he won it with in 2016––when he carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans won the Florida three times and Democrats won it three times.
OHIO
Biden over Trump: +4 (49-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats will love this poll––it shows Biden winning Ohio, a state Trump won in 2016 by a substantial 8 points. Democrats have won Ohio in four of the last seven presidential elections.
ARIZONA
(Monmouth) Biden over Trump: +3 (46-43)
(NBC) Biden over Trump: +1 (47-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden having any lead in Arizona is good for Democrats. Trump won the state last time by 3.6 points. It’s voted Republican in the last five presidential elections. From the Monmouth poll report:
- About half the state’s voters (49%) say the federal government has done a good job handling the outbreak, while 43% say it has done a bad job. Similarly, 49% say Trump has done a good job handling the outbreak, while 46% say he has done a bad job.
- While Arizona voters are divided on the president’s handling of the COVID-19 situation, overall opinion of him is underwater. Currently, 41% have a favorable view of Trump and 50% hold an unfavorable opinion, with another 10% offering no opinion.
- Biden has a 36% favorable and 38% unfavorable rating among state voters, but 1 in 4 (26%) have no opinion of him.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
(Morning Consult) Biden over Sanders: +21 (58-37-3)
(Reuters) Biden over Sanders: +9 (48-39-2)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden has led every national poll since March 1. The average of the four most recent polls gives him a lead of 21 points…. The Reuters lead is much lower than other recent polls have shown…. Personal ratings: Among Democratic primary voters, Biden is 76% favorable/19% unfavorable, Sanders is 74% favorable/22% unfavorable and Gabbard is 23% favorable/29% unfavorable.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Among Democratic primary voters in each state
FLORIDA
Biden over Sanders: +38 (63-25-2)
RON’S COMMENT: The primary is today for 219 delegates.
OHIO
Biden over Sanders: +23 (58-53-2)
RON’S COMMENT: The primary is being rescheduled. There are 136 delegates at stake.
ARIZONA
Biden over Sanders: +17 (53-36-1)
RON’S COMMENT: The primary is today for 67 delegates.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which Democratic presidential candidate received the highest percentage of the vote in Florida in the general election––Al Gore in 2000 or Hillary Clinton in 2016?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Morning Consult, March 11-15
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, March 11-15; Reuters/Ipsos, March 13-16
FLORIDA: Univision, March 11-12
OHIO: NBC/Marist, March 10-15
ARIZONA: NBC/Marist, March 10-15; Monmouth, March 11-14
TRIVIA ANSWER
Gore. In 2000, Al Gore received 48.8 percent of the vote in Florida. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 47.8%.
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