Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, March 5, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 44% (Reuters, The Economist, Politico) to 48% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
GEORGIA
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +8 (51-43)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +10 (52-42)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +11 (52-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats think they have a shot to carry Georgia in November, but these numbers indicate otherwise. Even Biden, who does best against Trump, is 8 points behind.
ARIZONA
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (48-47)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +1 (47-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Close race. In 2016, Trump won the state by nearly 4 points. Arizona has voted Republican in five of the last six presidential elections.
MAINE
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +10 (52-42)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +10 (52-42)
RON’S COMMENT: In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by 3 points, although Trump won one of its 4 electoral votes (Maine allows electoral vote splits). The state voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections.
U.S. SENATE
Among voters in each state
GEORGIA
Doug Collins (R): 21%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 19%
Matt Lieberman (D): 11%
Raphael Warnock (D): 6%
Wayne Johnson (R): 4%
Ed Tarver (D): 4%
Richard Winfield (D): 3%
Al Bartell (I): 2%
RON’S COMMENT: There will be a special U.S. Senate election this November in Georgia to fill the vacancy created when Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) resigned. Candidates from all parties will run against one another in an open election. Republican incumbent Loeffler was appointed by the governor to fill the vacancy. Collins is a GOP member of the U.S. House. Democrat Liberman is a businessman and son of former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman…. Note that Republican candidates draw a total of 44% and Democrats and independents combined draw 26%…. The election is Nov. 3. If no one gets a majority, there will be a runoff Jan. 5.
MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +4 (47-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Collins is a major target of Democrats this year and this poll indicates she has a real fight on her hands. State House Speaker Gideon leads among Hillary Clinton voters 81-10 and Collins leads among Trump voters 80-9. Collins’ job rating is heavily negative at 33% approve/57% disapprove. Gideon’s rating is 34% favorable/32% unfavorable.
ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +5 (47-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Another battle royal. Incumbent McSally’s job rating is a net negative 37% approve/46% disapprove.
CORONAVIRUS
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak?
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters disapprove of the president’s handling of the outbreak. However, 89% of Republicans approve. The bad news for Trump: Only 34% of independents, most likely to be swing voters, approve…. Also: 43% of voters approve of Pence being given the job of coordinating the government’s response to coronavirus, and 48% disapprove…. This poll also shows:
Percentage of U.S. adults have done the following:
- Changed any usual behavior (19%)
- Changed travel plans (14%)
- Worked from home instead of going to your usual place of work (11%)
- Wear a medical face mask in public (9%)
Percentage of U.S. adults who think authorities should:
- Quarantine people who have traveled in areas severely impacted by coronavirus (69%)
- Require people who can work from home to work from home (36%)
- Cancel long distance travel (e.g. planes, trains, buses, etc.) (31%)
- Cancel all meetings or gatherings of more than 1000 people (e.g. sports events, concerts, conferences, etc.) (26%)
- Close schools and universities (15%)
- Require people to wear medical face masks in public (15%)
STOCK MARKET
Among U.S. adults nationwide
Do you think the stock market will be higher or lower 12 months from now?
Higher: 26%
About the same: 18%
Lower 27%
RON’S COMMENT: Partisanship heavily influences outlook for the stock market––11% of Democrats, 23% of independents and 54% of Republicans think it will be higher 12 months from now
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CORONAVIRUS, STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: The Economist/YouGov, March 1-3
GEORGIA: Univ. of Georgia, Feb. 24-March 2
MAINE, ARIZONA: PPP (D), MARCH 2-3
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