Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, March 2, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 47% (Fox News, Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
SUPER TUESDAY
By Ron Faucheux
Here’s a quick summary of tomorrow’s 14 state primaries, based on our most recent polling averages:
- Sanders leads in seven states: California, Texas, Virginia, Massachusetts, Colorado, Vermont and Utah.
- Biden leads in two states: North Carolina and Oklahoma.
- Klobuchar leads in one state: Minnesota, her home base.
- Bloomberg and Warren do not lead any states.
- But: Events are moving rapidly. Voter choices in some states may not have jelled by the time polls were completed. Be ready for last-minute shifts.
- Buttigieg’s withdrawal: Before he withdrew, Buttigieg wasn’t winning any state and his support levels were generally modest (although he was polling 18% in Utah and 12% in Massachusetts). His votes will likely scatter––one national poll shows his former rivals (Biden, Bloomberg, Warren and Sanders) will each gain about the same. Biden, however, could benefit most since he’s battling Sanders in a number of fairly close contests, and any slight percentage gain for him could make a difference. Let’s remember, too, that Buttigieg did best among higher income whites, which does not square with Biden’s natural base of blacks and lower income whites, although Biden and Buttigieg did share support among older voters.
- Four additional states: We do not have adequate polling in four states: Alabama, Arkansas, Maine and Tennessee. But, if you assume Sanders wins Maine and Biden wins these three southern states, that would change the Super Tuesday tally to Sanders 8, Biden 5, Klobuchar 1––which assumes Sanders holds Virginia, Texas and Massachusetts.
- Biden momentum? There is a growing sense that Biden is the best bet to stop Sanders. That’s clearly the view among pragmatic party leaders, although it’s not yet clear whether voters share that mindset. If they do, it will give Biden a last-minute boost. In Texas, for example, polls are tightening. In Virginia, Sanders leads recent polling, but Buttigieg’s withdrawal, plus Biden’s 11th hour endorsements from popular Democratic politicians in the state, could catapult the former VP over Sanders. We’ll know soon.
- States worth watching tomorrow night: Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Massachusetts. They hold 528 delegates and could shift the balance one way or the other.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic primary voters in each state
CALIFORNIA PRIMARY
% = CBS/USA Today/Emerson = Average
Bernie Sanders: 31%/35%/38% = 34.7
Joe Biden: 19%/14%/21% = 18
Elizabeth Warren: 18%/12%/16% = 15.3
Michael Bloomberg: 12%/16%/11% = 13
Pete Buttigieg: 9%/7%/7% = 7.7
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/5%/5% = 4.7
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/3%/1% = 1.7
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders holds first place in Super Tuesday’s biggest prize. Biden is a distant second. The Emerson poll, which shows Biden doing best, is the most recent. The primary is tomorrow for 415 delegates, more than one-fifth of the 1,991 votes needed to clinch the nomination…. The CBS poll finds:
- 50% of Democratic primary voters say they’d consider voting for Sanders, 42% for Warren, 42% for Biden and 29% for Bloomberg.
- 35% say Sanders has the best chance of beating Trump, 28% say Biden and 15% say Bloomberg.
- 43% say Bloomberg is not progressive enough. 36% say the same about Klobuchar and 35% say the same about Biden.
- 55% say Sanders is too progressive. 34% say the same about Warren.
- 54% would like to “advance a more progressive agenda than the country had under Barack Obama.”
- 51% say they’ve definitely made up their minds and 42% say probably.
- Sanders wins every issue except national security, which Biden wins. Warren comes close on education.
TEXAS PRIMARY
% = CBS/Emerson = Average
Bernie Sanders: 30%/31% = 30.5
Joe Biden: 26%/26% = 26
Elizabeth Warren: 17%/14% = 15.5
Michael Bloomberg: 13%/16% = 14.5
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/5% = 6.5
Amy Klobuchar: 6%/4% = 5
Tulsi Gabbard: – /3% = 1.5
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders holds first place in Super Tuesday’s second biggest prize, but Biden is within striking distance for a big upset. The Texas primary is tomorrow for 228 delegates.
NORTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
% = ECU/NBC = Average
Joe Biden: 29%/24% = 26.5
Bernie Sanders: 25%/26% = 25.5
Michael Bloomberg: 14%/15% = 14.5
Elizabeth Warren: 11%/11% = 11
Pete Buttigieg: 4%/7% = 5.5
Amy Klobuchar: 5%/5% = 5
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds first place in Super Tuesday’s third biggest prize––albeit by a slim margin in the average. Sanders is leading one of the polls. The primary is tomorrow for 110 delegates.
MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 12%
Joe Biden: 11%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders is edging Warren in her home state. But, Buttigieg’s former supporters (a substantial 12%) could tip the balance. Warren and Buttigieg have drawn from some of the same voter cohorts. The primary is tomorrow for 91 delegates.
CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 44%/55%
Joe Biden: 50%/46%
Bernie Sanders: 49%/47%
Elizabeth Warren: 43%/47%
Michael Bloomberg: 42%/50%
Amy Klobuchar: 37%/37%
RON’S COMMENT: Two Democrats (Biden, Sanders) have higher positive ratings among general election voters than does President Trump. However, Trump’s negative rating is higher than any of his possible rivals.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CALIFORNIA: CBS, Feb. 27-29; USA Today/Suffolk, Feb. 27-29; Emerson, Feb. 29-March 1
TEXAS: CBS, Feb. 27-29; Emerson, Feb. 29-March 1
NORTH CAROLINA: ECU, FEB. 27-28; NBC/Marist, Feb. 23-27
MASSACHUSETTS: Suffolk/Boston Globe, Feb. 26-29
CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY: Fox News, Feb. 23-26
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