Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 25, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 50% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 4 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders: 32%
Michael Bloomberg: 19%
Joe Biden: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Looking at the internal data from this post-debate national poll….
- Between Thursday (Feb. 20) and Sunday (Feb. 23), this poll shows Sanders moving up 2 points and Bloomberg recovering a bit, going up 2 points, from 17% to 19%. Biden, Warren and Klobuchar are each down a point and Buttigieg remains the same.
- The poll now puts Sanders ahead among black voters nationwide (30%) with Biden and Bloomberg tied for second place (25% each).
- Sanders leads whites with 29% and Hispanics with 45%.
- Sanders wins Gen Z with 55%, Millennials with 43%, Gen X with 30%. Biden wins Boomers with 23%, Bloomberg is a close second at 22% and Sanders is third at 19%.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Among Democratic voters in each state
South Carolina Primary
% = NBC / PPP = Average
Joe Biden: 27%/36% = 31.5
Bernie Sanders: 23%/21% = 22
Tom Steyer: 15%/7% = 11
Pete Buttigieg: 9%/7% = 8
Elizabeth Warren: 8%/8% = 8
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%/6% = 4.5
Amy Klobuchar: 5%/3% = 4
RON’S COMMENT: Two more polls showing Biden hanging onto his lead in “firewall” South Carolina. But: NBC puts Biden’s advantage over Sanders at a modest 4 points, while the PPP poll has him leading by a wide 15 points. What to believe? Let’s see how tonight’s debate goes. The primary is Saturday for 54 delegates
Texas Primary
Joe Biden: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Michael Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: This survey was taken Feb. 6-18, an unusually long 13-day interviewing window, especially during a time with fast-moving events. In any case, it has Biden and Sanders tied at the top with Warren close behind. The primary is March 3 for 228 delegates, the second biggest delegate haul on Super Tuesday.
North Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Michael Bloomberg: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Tom Steyer: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll was taken after the last debate. The two polls before the debate gave Bloomberg 22% and 19%, and one had Sanders ahead. Looks like Bloomberg’s loss may be Biden’s gain. The primary is Super Tuesday, March 3, for 110 delegates.
New York Primary
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Michael Bloomberg: 21%
Joe Biden: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders is leading in this poll of New York state Democrats with Bloomberg second. Internals:
- Among only NYC voters, Bloomberg beats Sanders 27-19––but, Sanders wins upstate 35-12 and the suburbs 29-17.
- Bloomberg runs first among African Americans statewide (24%) with Biden a close second (23%).
- Catholics favor Sanders over Bloomberg, 29-23.
- Jewish voters pick Bloomberg first (28%) and Buttigieg second (16%).
- Bloomberg’s rating in NYC is 59% favorable/36% unfavorable. However, upstate is decidedly negative, at 25% favorable/58% unfavorable, and in the suburbs, it’s a not-so-hot 39% favorable/54% unfavorable.
- Most of this poll was conducted before the last debate.
- The primary isn’t until April 28 for 274 delegates.
Maryland Primary
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Joe Biden: 18%
Michael Bloomberg: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: The Maryland primary is April 28 for 96 delegates.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which current member of the U.S. Senate recorded a folk album; had parts in two movies, “My X-Girlfriend’s Wedding Reception” and “Sweet Hearts Dance”; lost a race for governor; taught at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government; and has a Ben & Jerry’s ice cream flavor named after him?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, Feb. 23; The Economist/YouGov, Feb.
SOUTH CAROLINA: NBC/Marist, Feb. 18-21; PPP (D), Feb. 23-24
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), Feb. 23-24
TEXAS: Univ. of Houston, Feb. 6-19
NEW YORK: Siena, Feb. 16-20
MARYLAND: Goucher College, Feb. 13-19
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TRIVIA ANSWER
Bernie Sanders.
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