Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 18, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 44% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders: 31%
Michael Bloomberg: 19%
Joe Biden: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: In this national poll, Sanders is pulling away from the pack, with Bloomberg rising to second place.
- Sanders gets 46% from the progressive left and 14% from moderates.
- Bloomberg gets 12% from the progressive left and 29% from moderates.
- Biden gets 7% of the progressive left and 23% from moderates.
- Biden beats Sanders among blacks, 31-28, with Bloomberg third at 16%. Nobody else gets more than 5%.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
Nevada Caucus
Bernie Sanders: 35%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 15%
Joe Biden: 14%
Tom Steyer: 10%
Klobuchar: 9%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders is well ahead in this Nevada sampling––with a traffic jam for second and third place. If Biden runs fourth or worse, it would be another serious blow to his candidacy.
- In Nevada, Sanders does better among men than women (42% vs. 28%). He also does better among Hispanics (66%) and blacks/other races (33%) than among whites (28%). He’s getting 54% of the party’s left wing and 20% of moderates.
- Biden’s strength is moderates (23%) and blacks/other races (23%).
- Warren does best with college graduates (22%) and the progressive left (23%).
- Klobuchar does better among women than men (11% vs. 6%), and best among voters over 45 years old (14%).
- Buttigieg’s vote is spread out fairly well among all groups, except for Hispanics (4%) and those under 45 (7%).
- Steyer does best with moderates (22%).
- Bloomberg isn’t playing in Nevada.
- 36 delegates are at stake in Nevada and the caucuses wrap up Saturday. There is a debate Wednesday night.
Virginia Primary
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Michael Bloomberg: 22%
Joe Biden: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders and Bloomberg are tied for first place in Virginia with Biden third. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are battling for fourth. Warren has fallen out of contention.
- Biden wins blacks (37%) with Sanders and Bloomberg tied for second (18% each).
- Bloomberg does about the same among men (21%) and women (23%). He also wins northern Virginia (26%).
- The poll tested hypothetical two-person primary trial heats in the Old Dominion: Bloomberg over Sanders (47-41), Biden over Sanders (51-38), Sanders over Klobuchar (45 to 42); Sanders over Buttigieg (44 to 42).
- Virginia votes March 3, Super Tuesday, and has 99 delegates.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which Democrat won the 2008 and 2016 Nevada presidential caucuses?
Which Republican won the 2008 and 2012 Nevada presidential caucuses?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: NPR/PBS/Marist, Feb. 13-16
NEVADA: Data for Progress (D), Feb. 12-15
VIRGINIA: Monmouth, Feb. 13-16
TRIVIA ANSWER
Hillary Clinton. She won both the 2008 and 2016 Nevada Democratic caucuses.
Mitt Romney. He won both the 2008 and 2012 Nevada Republican caucuses.
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