LUNCHTIME POLITICS: National Poll Has Sanders First, Biden, Bloomberg Close – Georgia, Florida – Eliminate Caucuses, Iowa – New Hampshire Look Back

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 14, 2020

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

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NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Bernie Sanders: 29%
Joe Biden: 19% 
Michael Bloomberg: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 11% 
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: This national Morning Consult poll was conducted Wednesday, so it reflects initial reactions to the New Hampshire primary. Key findings: 

• Compared to the same poll that was taken before New Hampshire, Sanders is up 4 points, Biden down 3, Bloomberg up 1, Warren down 1 and Klobuchar 2. Buttigieg stayed the same.
• Sanders has cemented his status as the leader of the progressive left. He’s polling nearly 3 to 1 over Warren for the title.
• Biden has lost his frontrunner status. 
• Bloomberg is now in third place, vying for second. 
• Though Klobuchar has moved up over the past week, she still lags in mid-single digits.
• Biden’s electability advantage has faded. More Democrats across the nation now think Sanders (29%) and Bloomberg (25%) have a better chance of beating Trump than Biden (17%). This is a big blow to Biden’s campaign.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Among Democratic voters in each state

Florida Primary
Michael Bloomberg: 27%
Joe Biden: 26% 
Pete Buttigieg: 11% 
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Bloomberg now edges Biden in Florida. Buttigieg, Sanders and Klobuchar are vying for a distant third place. Warren is out of the picture. This poll was conducted after the New Hampshire primary…. To illustrate the recent shifts, a Florida poll taken in mid-January had Biden leading Bloomberg 42-7….  Florida votes March 17 and has 219 delegates. This could become a decisive battleground.
 
Georgia Primary
Joe Biden: 32% 
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Michael Bloomberg: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 5% 
Elizabeth Warren: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Despite a terrible two weeks in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden holds a big lead in Georgia. He’s getting 41% of African Americans…. This survey was taken the day after the New Hampshire primary. Georgia votes March 24 and has 105 delegates.

ELIMINATE CAUCUSES, IOWA FIRST
Among Democrats nationwide

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? 
 
The Democratic Party should eliminate caucuses as part of the nomination process 
Agree, eliminate caucuses: 48%
Disagree: 20%
 
Iowa should hold the Democratic Party’s first nominating contest
Agree, Iowa should be first: 26%
Disagree: 32%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats across the nation favor eliminating caucuses (48-20) and don’t think Iowa should vote first anymore (32-26).

HOW DID NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS DO?
Comparison of final polling average with actual votes cast

Let’s compare the final polling average to the first alignment popular votes cast in the Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary:
 
AVERAGE OF FINAL THREE POLLS – NEW HAMPSHIRE

1. Sanders: 28.7%
2. Buttigieg: 17%
3. Klobuchar: 11.7%
4. Biden: 11%
5. Warren: 11%
6. Yang: 3.7%                                                                                                 
7. Gabbard: 3.3%
8. Steyer: 1.7%

ACTUAL VOTES CAST – NEW HAMPSHIRE

1. Sanders: 25.9% (off 2.8 points from poll average)
2. Buttigieg: 24.4% (off 7.4 points)
3. Klobuchar: 19.8% (off 8.1 points)
4. Warren: 9.3% (off 1.7 points)
5. Biden: 8.4% (off 2.6 points)
6. Steyer: 3.6% (off 1.9 points)
7. Gabbard: 3.3% (same as poll average)
8. Yang: 2.8% (off 0.9 points) 

RON’S COMMENT: The average of the final three Iowa polls (Boston Globe. WHDH, CNN) came within 3 points of the actual results for Sanders, Warren, Steyer, Gabbard and Yang. However, the poll average missed Klobuchar by 8.1 points and Buttigieg by 7.4 points. Note: At least some of the variation between poll results and actual vote totals may be attributable to last-minute voter shifts that occurred after poll interviewing was completed…. Let’s take a look at individual polls:

• The Boston Globe poll came closest on Sanders (off by 1.1 points)
• The WHDH poll came closest on Buttigieg (off by 1.4 points)
• All three surveys underpolled Klobuchar, but the Boston Globe and WHDH tracking polls came closer (off by 5.8 points) than did the CNN poll (off by 12.9 points).
• CNN came closest on Warren (off by 0.7 points.)
• WHDH came closest on Biden (off by 1.6 points).

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Feb. 12-13
GEORGIA: WSB/Landmark, Feb. 12
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, ELIMINATE CAUCUSES, IOWA FIRST: Morning Consult, Feb. 12

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