Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, February 13, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Politico, Quinnipiac) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
NORTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Michael Bloomberg: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden is holding a lead in North Carolina, but it’s not a big lead. Sanders is second and Bloomberg third. CAVEAT: These results may be stale. Much of this poll’s interviewing was conducted before Iowa and all of it was conducted before New Hampshire. The primary is March 3 and 110 delegates are at stake.
ALABAMA: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide
Jeff Sessions: 31%
Tommy Tuberville: 29%
Bradley Byrne: 17%
Roy Moore: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Sessions has a fight on his hands. This poll shows him with a small lead in the March 3 GOP primary to regain the Senate seat he gave up to become Trump’s AG…. Tuberville, running a strong second, is the former Auburn football coach. Byrne is a member of the U.S. House and Moore was the Republican Senate nominee in 2017 who lost to Democrat Doug Jones in a special election. f no candidate wins a majority in the primary, a runoff will be held. In a possible runoff, Sessions leads Tuberville 49-42 and leads Byrne 48-35.
Jeff Sessions (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +13 (54-41)
Bradley Byrne (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +9 (51-42)
Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +8 (50-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Jones, who won Sessions’ former seat in a 2017 special election, has an uphill race in November. All three Republicans defeat him by clear margins. Handicappers rate the general election “lean” Republican…. Statewide polling also shows Trump winning Alabama by wide margins against possible Democratic presidential candidates. He carried the state in 2016 by a whopping 28 points.
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?
RON’S COMMENT: Nationwide––Romney has a net negative rating which is driven by Republicans who have turned on him since his impeachment/conviction vote. While Democrats give the former GOP presidential nominee strongly positive ratings––62% favorable/25% unfavorable––Republicans rate him overwhelmingly negative, 21% favorable/70% unfavorable…. It Utah––A recent Deseret News poll finds Romney’s job rating remains positive in his home state with 50% approve/41% disapprove. Among Utah Republicans, he’s 40% approve/49% disapprove.
RIPPING UP TRUMP’S SPEECH
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi ripping up her printed copy of the text of President Trump’s State of the Union speech?
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters disapprove of Nancy Pelosi’s ripping up Trump’s speech. While most Democrats (70%) approve of her gesture and most Republicans disapprove (83%), 27% of independent approve and 51% disapprove. The independent numbers tell the tale: The gesture was a political mistake.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: High Point, Jan. 31-Feb. 6
ALABAMA: Mason Dixon/AL Daily, Feb. 4-6
MITT ROMNEY, RIPPING UP TRUMP SPEECH: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 9-11
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