LUNCHTIME POLITICS: New Hampshire Update

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 10, 2020

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from Friday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide

% = Globe / WHDH / CBS / CNN / Herald / UMass = Average
Bernie Sanders: 27%/30%/29%/28%/23%/25% = 27.4
Pete Buttigieg: 19%/23%/25%/21%/20%/17% = 20.7
Elizabeth Warren: 12%/11%/17%/9%/16%/15% = 13.1
Joe Biden: 12%/10%/12%/12%/14%/14% = 12.1
Amy Klobuchar: 14%/14%/10%/6%/6%/8% = 10.1
Andrew Yang: 3
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.7
Tom Steyer: 2.3
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Our New Hampshire average today is based on six polls conducted Tuesday to Sunday. The first two numbers in bold are the two most recent tracking polls which were conducted Saturday and Sunday. Let’s look at the trend:

• Before the Iowa caucus in the latest two tracking polls (Boston Globe, WHDH), Sanders was leading Buttigieg in New Hampshire by 16 points (28-12).
• By Thursday (before Friday’s debate) Sanders’ lead narrowed to 5 points (28-23) in the two tracking polls. 
• In the two tracking polls that were conducted Saturday and Sunday (after Friday’s debate), Sanders slightly expanded his lead over Buttigieg to 7.5 points (28.5-21). 
• Based on these two tracking polls, one can conclude that Buttigieg was on fire Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of last week, but his momentum stalled with Friday’s debate. 
• Klobuchar now has the momentum. Before the debate, she averaged 7.5% in the two tracking polls. After the debate in the same two polls, she zoomed up to 14%. In the most recent Globe and WHDH tracking polls, Klobuchar is running third, ahead of both Biden and Warren. The debate likely played a big role in her last-minute rise.
• Voters still seem wary of making a final choice. In the CNN poll, only 53% of New Hampshire primary voters say they have definitely decided on a candidate. This leaves room for big last-minute shifts.
• 57% predict Sanders will win the New Hampshire primary (CNN).
• Biden lost his electability edge in New Hampshire: 29% think Sanders has the best chance to beat Trump, while 23% think Biden does (CNN).
• 52% of primary voters say they’re considering voting for Sanders and 49% say they’re considering voting for Buttigieg (CBS). 

HOW DID IOWA POLLS DO?
Comparison of last polling average with actual votes cast

Let’s compare the final polling average to the popular votes cast (first alignment) in the Feb. 3 Iowa caucus:
 
AVERAGE OF FINAL THREE IOWA POLLS

1. Bernie Sanders: 27%
2. Joe Biden: 20%
3. Pete Buttigieg: 17%
4. Elizabeth Warren: 17%
5. Amy Klobuchar: 8%
6. Andrew Yang: 5%
7. Tom Steyer: 3%
8. Tulsi Gabbard: 1.5%

IOWA POPULAR VOTES CAST first alignment

1. Bernie Sanders: 24.7%
2. Pete Buttigieg: 21.3%
3. Elizabeth Warren: 18.5%
4. Joe Biden: 14.9%
5. Amy Klobuchar: 12.7%
6. Andrew Yang: 5.1%
7. Tom Steyer: 1.7%
8. Tulsi Gabbard: .2%

RON’S COMMENT: The average of the final three Iowa polls (Civiqs, Emerson, CBS) put Sanders first, Biden second, Buttigieg third, Warren fourth and Klobuchar fifth. The actual votes cast (first alignment) had Sanders first, Buttigieg second, Warren third, Biden fourth and Klobuchar fifth…. It should be noted that actual votes cast is different than the allocation of delegates, which Buttigieg won…. In terms of polling vs. votes cast, Biden overpolled the most and Klobuchar underpolled the most…. Let’s look at what happened:

• The CBS poll missed Biden’s vote by a wide margin (25 vs. 14.9). 
• The Civiqs and Emerson polls were off the most on Buttigieg’s vote (15 and 15 vs. 21.3).
• The CBS poll came closest on Sanders’ vote (25 vs. 24.7) and Warren’s vote (17 vs. 18.5).
• The Civiqs poll came closest on Biden (15 vs. 14.9).
• The Emerson poll came closest on Klobuchar (11 vs. 12.7).
• Biden polled 5.1 points higher than his actual vote (20 vs. 14.9)
• Sanders polled 2.3 points higher than his actual vote (27 vs. 24.7)
• Warren polled 1.5 points lower than her actual vote (17 vs. 18.5)
• Buttigieg polled 4.3 points lower than his actual vote (17 vs. 21.3)
• Klobuchar polled 4.7 points lower than her actual vote (8 vs. 12.7)

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: CNN/UNH, Feb. 5-8; Boston Herald/FPU, Feb. 5-8; CBS/YouGov, Feb. 5-8; Boston Globe/Suffolk, Feb. 8-9; WHDH/Emerson, Feb. 8-9; UMass Lowell, Feb. 4-7
 
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