Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Down 2 since yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: President Trump takes a dip. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+2 yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Average of recent general election polls

Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +6
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4.8
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +3.8
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +2.5
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +0.5
RON’S COMMENT: In the new Lunchtime Politics Boxscore––which averages the four most recent national polls in the presidential race––Bloomberg does best against Trump and Biden follows. We will update the boxscore every time a new poll is added.

Among Democratic caucusgoers statewide

% = Monmouth / Iowa State Univ. = Average
Bernie Sanders: 21%/24% = 22.5
Joe Biden: 23%/15% = 19
Elizabeth Warren: 15%/19% = 17
Pete Buttigieg: 16%/17% = 16.5
Amy Klobuchar: 10%/11% = 10.5
Andrew Yang: 3%/5% =4
Tom Steyer: 4%/4% = 4
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls, two different pictures of the race:

  • Monmouth has Biden first and Sanders a close second.
  • ISU has Sanders first and Warren second with Biden fourth.
  • Both polls show Buttigieg third.
  • Klobuchar has a foothold but hasn’t broken through yet.
  • We’re days to the caucus, and only 47% of Iowa Democrats in the Monmouth poll say they’re firmly decided. 
  • Nate Cohn’s piece in the NYT on Iowa polling is worth reading: click here

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = The Economist / Quinnipiac = Average
Joe Biden: 26%/26% = 26
Bernie Sanders: 24%/21% = 22.5
Elizabeth Warren: 20%/15% = 17.5
Pete Buttigieg: 7%/6% = 6.5
Michael Bloomberg: 4%/8% = 6
Andrew Yang: 4%/3% = 3.5
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/7% = 5.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%/1% = 2
Tom Steyer: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Candidate order is about what we’ve been seeing. Note the 5-point spread in Warren’s vote (20 vs. 15) and the 4-point spread in Bloomberg’s (4 vs. 8).

Among Republican voters statewide

Republican primary
Jeff Sessions: 43%
Bradley Byrne: 22%
Tommy Tuberville: 21%
Roy Moore: 8%
Arnold Mooney: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Sessions leading the March 3 GOP primary to regain the Senate seat he gave up to become Trump’s AG…. Byrneis a member of the U.S. House, Tuberville is the former Auburn football coach and Moore was the Republican Senate nominee in 2017 who lost to Democrat Doug Jones in a special election.Though Sessions was brutally criticized by Trump during his tenure in the cabinet, Sessions is now running as a “pro-Trump Republican who has spent his life fighting for pro-Trump, pro-America policies.” The poll was conducted for Sessions’ campaign.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think the way the nation’s economy works these days gives most people a fair shot, or not?

Economy is fair: 39%
Unfair, system requires major changes: 38%
Unfair, system requires minor changes: 17%

RON’S COMMENT: Views on the fairness of the economy is a strongly partisan question. 11% of Democrats, 73% of Republicans, and 28% of independents believe that the economy is fair. 62% of Democrats believe the economy is unfair and needs major changes. Density plays a role as well: 33% of urban voters, 39% of suburban voters, and 43% of rural voters believe the economy is fair.   

Among voters nationwide

How interested are you in the presidential election? 

Extremely interested: 55%
Very interested: 27%
Somewhat interested: 14%
Not at all interested: 3%

RON’S COMMENT: Extreme interest in the election is 21 points higher now than it was four years ago and 23 points higher than it was eight years ago. Whether you love or despite Trump, you have to admit that he’s stirred public interest in elections.  

Among voters nationwide

Findings from new Quinnipiac poll report:

  • More than half of voters (53%) say President Trump is not telling the truth about his actions involving Ukraine. There are sharp divides along party lines, with 89% of Republicans saying the president is telling the truth and 92% of Democrats saying he is not telling the truth. More independents, 56%, believe Trump is not telling the truth, compared to the 33% who say he is telling the truth. 
  • A majority of voters, 57%, say they would like Trump to provide more details about his actions involving Ukraine, while 38% say they are satisfied with the explanation he has provided. 
  • More than half of voters, 54%, believe Trump abused his power regarding his actions involving Ukraine, while 42% say he did not. 
  • A similar 52% think that President Trump obstructed Congress regarding its investigation of his actions involving Ukraine, while 42% think he did not. 
  • Just over half of American voters, 52%, think the Trump administration’s withholding of U.S. aid to Ukraine was not justified, while 34% say it was justified. 
  • Voters continue to tune into news about impeachment, as 57% say they are paying a lot of attention. This compares to 59% who said they were paying a lot of attention in mid-December 2019, before the Senate trial began. 

NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so. 

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Monmouth, Jan. 23-27; Iowa State Univ., Jan. 23-27
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 26-28; Quinnipiac, Jan. 22-27
BOXSCORE: Based on most recent polls by Morning Consult, Washington Post/ABC, Fox News and CNN
ALABAMA: On Message (R) for Sessions campaign, Jan. 13-15
TRUMP AND UKRAINE: Quinnipiac, Jan. 22-27

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.