LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Iowa, New Hampshire Updates – Fox Has Dems Leading – Missouri

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, January 27, 2020

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Friday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democratic voters in each state

Iowa Caucus
% = CBS/NYT/USA Today/Emerson = Average
Bernie Sanders: 26%/25%/19%/30% = 25
Joe Biden: 25%/17%/25%/21% = 22
Pete Buttigieg: 22%/18%/18%/10% = 17
Elizabeth Warren: 15%/15%/13%/11% = 13.5
Amy Klobuchar: 7%/8%/6%/13% = 8.5
Andrew Yang: 1%/3%/3%/5% = 3
Tom Steyer: 1%/3%/2%/5% = 2.8
Tulsi Gabbard: -/1%/1%/5% = 1.8
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: One more week! The average of these four polls shows Sanders ahead with Biden fairly close and Buttigieg third…. Observations: 

  • Sanders leads three of the four polls (by margins ranging from 1 to 9 points)
  • Biden leads one poll (by 6 points).
  • Buttigieg does pretty well in three polls, but collapses in the Emerson poll.
  • Warren ranks fourth across the board and appears to be, at best, stalled.
  • The Emerson poll is the outlier.
  • Klobuchar is showing strength, but only in the Emerson poll does she show fire.
  • The Emerson poll has Yang, Steyer and Gabbard doing better than in the other polls.
  • In the CBS poll, only 35% of Iowa Democrats say they’ve definitely made up their minds. 
  • Nate Cohn’s piece in the NYT on Iowa polling is worth reading: click here

New Hampshire Primary
% = NBC/CNN = Average
Bernie Sanders: 22%/25% = 23.5
Pete Buttigieg: 17%/15% = 16 
Joe Biden: 15%/16% = 15.5
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/12% = 12.5
Amy Klobuchar: 10%/6% = 8
Tulsi Gabbard: 6%/5% = 5.5
Andrew Yang: 5%/5% = 5
Tom Steyer: 3%/2% = 2.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders leads New Hampshire with Buttigieg and Biden vying for second place. Klobuchar has a foothold. Gabbard and Yang each show a modest level of support. Iowa’s Feb. 3 results could shuffle the deck before the Feb. 11 primary.
Missouri Primary
Joe Biden: 39% 
Michael Bloomberg: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 8%
Bernie Sanders: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 6% 
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a big lead in Missouri, one of his firewall states. Bloomberg is second. The primary is March 10, a week after Super Tuesday, and 68 delegates are at stake. 

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = WaPo-ABC/Fox News = Average
Joe Biden: 34%/26% = 30
Bernie Sanders: 22%/23% = 22.5
Elizabeth Warren: 14%/14% =14
Michael Bloomberg: 7%/10% = 8.5
Pete Buttigieg: 4%/7% = 5.5
Andrew Yang: 6%/5% = 5.5
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/3% = 3.5
Tom Steyer: 1%/3% = 2
Michael Bennet: 2%/- = 1
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: These two national polls have the same 1,2,3,4 candidate order. Bloomberg has now overtaken Buttigieg and Yang is tying Buttigieg. The action appears to be between Biden and Sanders on top and Bloomberg moving up. Also:

  • 60% of Democrats say it’s extremely or very important that their nominee is “authentic,” 53% say it’s extremely or very important that their nominee has the “best policy ideas” and 51% say has the “right experience.”
  • Only 3% of Democrats say they would most likely vote for Donald Trump if their candidate for the Democratic nomination is defeated. BUT, another 4% say they’d vote for a third-party candidate––which remains a major danger for Democrats.

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +9 (50-41)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +8 (49-41)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +6 (48-42)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +5 (47-42)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +4 (45-41)
Amy Klobuchar over Donald Trump: +1 (43-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll shows all six Democrats defeating Trump, with Biden and Bloomberg doing best.

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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: USA Today/Suffolk, Jan. 23-26; NYT/Siena, Jan. 20-23; CBS/YouGov, Jan. 16-23
NEW HAMPSHIRE: NBC/Marist, Jan. 20-23; CNN/UNH, Jan. 15-23
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Washington Post/ABC, Jan. 20-23; Fox News, Jan/19-22
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, Fox News, Jan. 19-22

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