Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 23, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Michael Bloomberg: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Over the last week in this poll, Sanders is down 2, Warren is up 2, and Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are each up 1…. Debate reaction: This poll finds that 19% of Democrats think Warren won the last debate (which may account for her bump), 16% think Biden won it, 15% say Sanders, 6% say Buttigieg and 5% say Klobuchar.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Bernie Sanders: 29%
Pete Buttigieg: 17%
Joe Biden: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Tulsi Gabbard: 5%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This WBUR poll shows Sanders surging in New Hampshire. Since the WBUR December poll, Sanders is up 14 points, Buttigieg is down 1, Biden is down 3 and Warren is up 1. The primary is Feb. 11…. These results are at odds with the recent Boston Globe poll which showed a bunched-together four-way race with Sanders at 16%.
SENATE PRIMARY: KANSAS 2020
Among Republican primary voters statewide
Republican Senate Primary
Roger Marshall: 29%
Kris Kobach: 28%
Susan Wagle: 6%
Others: 9%
Undecided: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: This Republican primary is for the open seat of retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said he’s not running…. GOP politicians fear a Kobach primary win could jeopardize their party’s chances in November. Kobach, a former state Secretary of State who lost a gubernatorial general election in 2018, is complaining that this poll oversamples Marshall’s district. Marshall is a member of the U.S. House and Wagle is state Senate president…. On the Democratic side, State Sen. Barbara Bollier, Manhattan Mayor Usha Reddi and former congressional candidate Robert Tillman are in the race. Other possible candidates are still mulling it over…. Handicappers rate the general election either lean or likely Republican.
FLORIDA 16: U.S. HOUSE
Among voters districtwide
U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) over Margaret Good (D): +20 (53-33)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Buchanan posts a wide lead at this stage of the campaign. He has a 26-point advantage with independents. The poll also shows he has a 22-point lead among voters over 65, who account for 40% of the electorate. So far, Buchanan has raised $1.9 million and state Rep. Good, a Democrat, has taken in $812,000. Buchanan has held this Sarasota-based Republican-leaning district since 2007 and has previously faced well-financed Democratic opposition. He won last time with nearly 55% of the vote. Handicappers rate the race either likely or solid Republican.
TRUMP REMOVAL
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not remove Donald Trump from office?
Should remove from office: 45%
Should not remove from office: 47%
Not sure: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: The national electorate is split nearly down the middle on whether Trump should be removed. By party: 82% of Democrats, 34% of independents and 7% of Republicans favor ousting the president from office.
GUN POLICY AS A VOTING ISSUE
Among voters nationwide
How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President this year? Gun Policy
Extremely important: 39%
Very important: 29%
Moderately important: 20%
Not that important: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: In January 2016, when CNN fielded this same question, 68% of voters said that gun policy was extremely or very important. That’s the same number as now. In this poll, both Democrats and Republicans rated the issue highly, 71% and 69%.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, TRUMP REMOVAL: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 19-21
NEW HAMPSHIRE: WBUR/MassINC, Jan. 17-21
KANSAS: co/Efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC, Jan. 19-20
FLORIDA 16: Data Targeting, Jan. 16-20
GUN POLICY AS A VOTING ISSUE: CNN, Jan. 16–19
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