LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Rating the Last Decade – Florida, Virginia Competitive – Biden Holds Lead

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 2, 2020

Same as Dec. 23 

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s post-Christmas average is based on only two polls, ranging from 44% (The Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 since Dec. 23), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters in each state

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (47-45)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +4 (49-45)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +5 (49-44) 
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +9 (51-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Numbers like these are keeping Biden’s campaign afloat. They show him edging Trump in Florida, a critical swing state that Trump carried by 1 point in 2016. The other Democrats all lose. This is especially bad news for Warren, who loses by a solid 9 points…. Look at this dataTrump beats Biden by 25 points, Warren by 37 points, Sanders by 33 points and Buttigieg by 24 points among WHITE voters in Florida.

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +2 (47-45)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +4 (48-44)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +6 (51-45) 
RON’S COMMENT: Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 5 points in 2016. The only Democrat leading in Virginia in this poll is Biden. While this is good news for the former VP––it reinforces his status as Mr. Electability among Democratic contenders––it’s even better news for Trump, showing him competitive in a state he lost last time…. Wow, here’s the differenceTrump beats Biden by 5 points, Warren by 23 points, Sanders by 26 points and Buttigieg by 20 points among INDEPENDENT voters in Virginia. This illustrates better than most data we’ve seen that a Democratic nominee on the progressive left could have a tough time among independents and swing voters in the general election…. Historically, Virginia has shifted blue in recent years. It voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections and all of its current statewide officials are Democrats. 

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = The Economist/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 29%/32% = 30.5
Bernie Sanders: 19%/21% = 20
Elizabeth Warren: 18%/14% = 16
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/8% = 8
Michael Bloomberg: 3%/6% = 4.5
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/3% = 3.5
Andrew Yang: 3%/4% = 3.5
Tom Steyer: 2%/3% = 2.5
Cory Booker: 2%/3% = 2.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%/1% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: These two most recent polls confirm the trends we’ve been seeing, with Biden on top, Sanders second and Warren third. Recent movement varies by poll: 

  • Over the past week in The Economist poll, Biden is down 1, Sanders is up 2, Warren is down 1, Buttigieg is up 1, Bloomberg down 1 and Klobuchar is down 1.
  • Over the past week in the Morning Consult poll, Biden is up 1, Warren is down 1, Buttigieg is down 1, and Bloomberg, Klobuchar and Sanders are the same.

Among voters nationwide

Looking back over the last 10 years, how would you describe the decade for the world? 
A good decade: 52%
A bad decade: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 49% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 59% of Republicans say the 2010s were a good decade. While 69% of voters say it was a good decade for them and their families, 63% say the United States became less respected in the world, 39% say politics became more interesting and 80% say political discussion became more negative

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Mason Dixon, Dec. 11-16
VIRGINIA: Mason Dixon, Dec. 12-16
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, LAST DECADE: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 28-31; Morning Consult, Dec. 23-19

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