Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, December 23, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 44% (WSJ/NBC, Politico) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Friday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL OF OUR READERS!
LUNCHTIME POLITICS WILL TAKE A BREAK STARTING TOMORROW AND RESUME REGULAR DAILY PUBLICATION IN EARLY JANUARY.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +5 (49-44)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +1 (46-45)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has three Democrats leading Trump by modest to slight margins. Biden continues to do best. Note in the polling that Trump does not exceed the 46% he received in the actual 2016 election. The following internals show voter group support for each candidate:
In the Biden vs. Trump race:
- Biden wins women by 19 points and Trump wins men by 11 points.
- Trump leads whites by 12 points and Biden leads nonwhites by 41 points.
- Biden wins voters 18-34 by 13 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 1 point.
- Biden gets 88% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans. He leads independents by 10 points.
In the Sanders vs. Trump race:
- Sanders wins women by 17 points and Trump wins men by 9 points.
- Trump leads whites by 14 points and Sanders leads nonwhites by 44 points.
- Sanders wins voters 18-34 by 11 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 3 points.
- Sanders gets 88% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans. He leads independents by 11 points.
In the Warren vs. Trump race:
- Warren wins women by 13 points and Trump wins men by 13 points.
- Trump leads whites by 17 points and Warren leads nonwhites by 37 points.
- Warren wins voters 18-34 by 4 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 5 points.
- Warren gets 85% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans. She leads independents by 5 points.
In the Buttigieg vs. Trump race:
- Buttigieg wins women by 10 points and Trump wins men by 13 points.
- Trump leads whites by 15 points and Buttigieg leads nonwhites by 27 points.
- Buttigieg wins voters 18-34 by 4 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 7 points.
- Buttigieg gets 83% of Democrats and 3% of Republicans. He leads independents by 2 points.
SHOULD TRUMP DEBATE?
Among voters nationwide
Do you think Donald Trump should or should not participate in presidential debates in the general election?
Should debate: 63%
Should not debate: 18%
Not sure: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans say he shoulddebate. The same poll found that 40% of Democrats think Trump will NOT debate and 52% of Republicans think he will.
PARTY FAVORABILITY
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the political parties?
Democratic Party
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 50%
Republican Party
Favorable: 41%
Unfavorable: 55%
RON’S COMMENT: Among independents, Republicans do a little better than Democrats: The Democratic Party is 25% favorable/53% unfavorable and the Republican Party is 29% favorable/48% unfavorable.
SOCIAL MEDIA USAGE
Among adults nationwide
Do you use the following social media networks?
% = at least weekly usage
Facebook: 62%
YouTube: 48%
Instagram: 28%
Twitter: 20%
WhatsApp: 11%
LinkedIn: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats are more likely to use all of the networks except Facebook, where Republicans have a small edge.
How often do you post original content you have made, including tweets, posts, grams, or videos, to the following social media network(s)?
% = at least weekly usage
WhatsApp: 33%
Facebook: 28%
Instagram: 26%
Twitter: 28%
YouTube: 15%
LinkedIn: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: WhatsApp attracts more original content than do other networks.
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LUNCHTIME POLITICS WILL TAKE A BREAK STARTING TOMORROW AND RESUME REGULAR DAILY PUBLICATION IN EARLY JANUARY.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: CNN, Dec. 12-15
DEBATE, PARTY FAVORABILITY: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 14-17
SOCIAL MEDIA USAGE: Ipsos, Dec. 16-17
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