Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, December 20, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 44% (WSJ/NBC, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 since yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.
LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE
By Ron Faucheux
No losers last night. All of the candidates gave the debate their best.
- Amy Klobuchar, who is showing a little life in some polls, helped herself the most. She stood out more than usual. Let’s watch her standing in Iowa.
- This was Joe Biden’s best debate. He was strong and steady. While it may not have much effect, it could help him solidify his lead.
- Pete Buttigieg showed he can take hits from multiple sources, although they put him on the defensive and throw him off message. His scuffle with Elizabeth Warren over campaign finance and the “wine cave” was the night’s most interesting exchange. In this case, he was able to counterattack Warren and put her on the defensive on the issue of hypocrisy. Klobuchar’s attack on Buttigieg’s experience was clever and may have done the most damage.
- Bernie Sanders was Bernie Sanders, which means he turned in a typically effective performance.
- Andrew Yang is most in step with 21st century economic and technology issues. He also made heartfelt comments about racial disparity.
- Tom Steyer gave his best performance to date.
- Warren had the best line of the night about becoming the youngest woman ever to be president.
- Wish Michael Bloomberg had been on stage.
POST-IMPEACHMENT SENTIMENT
Among adults nationwide
Now that the House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump, which of the following do you believe should happen?
- President Trump should be removed from office: 42%
- President Trump should be formally reprimanded, also known as censure, but Trump should not be removed from office: 17%
- The charges against President Trump should be dismissed: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: 72% of Democrats, 11% of Republicans and 32% of independents say Trump should be removed from office in this post-impeachment poll from Reuters/Ipsos.
How much has the impeachment of President Trump affected your support for him, if at all?
- It has made me more supportive of Trump: 26%
- It has made me less supportive of Trump: 20%
- No change: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: 51% of Republicans say impeachment has made them more supportive of the president, while 12% say less supportive…. 23% of independents say impeachment has made them more supportive of the president, while 18% say less supportive.
NATIONAL: REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Among Republican primary voters nationwide
Donald Trump: 88%
William Weld: 2%
Joe Walsh: 1%
Not sure: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump crushes his GOP primary opponents. Talk about party unity!
FAVORABILITY OF PUBLIC FIGURES
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
William Barr: 32%/42%
Rudy Giuliani: 35%/54%
Mick Mulvaney: 23%/36%
Mike Pompeo: 32%/42%
Adam Schiff: 35%/42%
Devin Nunes: 29%/38%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Republicans: Barr is 56/11, Giuliani is 67/18, Mulvaney is 39/8, Pompeo is 53/11 and Nunes is 47/10. Among Democrats: Schiff is 56/12.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND THE ECONOMY
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the U.S. economy will get better, get worse or will it stay the same if a Democrat is elected President in 2020?
Get better: 32%
Get worse: 43%
Stay the same: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: 52% of Democrats, 17% of independents and 13% of Republicans say the economy will get better if a Democrat wins.
Do you think the U.S. economy will get better, get worse or will it stay the sameif Donald Trump is reelected President in 2020?
Get better: 39%
Get worse: 39%
Stay the same: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: 10% of Democrats, 29% of independents and 73% of Republicans say the economy will get better if Trump wins re-election.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 49% (+2 since last week)
Trump: 40% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 9 points, last week it was 6 points.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
POST-IMPEACHMENT POLL: Reuters/Ipsos, Dec. 18-19
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND THE ECONOMY: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 7-10
NATIONAL: REPUBLICAN NOMINATION, TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, FAVORABILITY OF PUBLIC FIGURES: The Economist/YouGov, Dec.14-17
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