Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 22, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: President Trump’s job approval rating has remained remarkably stable during the impeachment inquiry. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Politico) to 48% (Emerson). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-2 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
ELITE AUDIENCE RESEARCH BY CERTUS INSIGHTS
Elite audience surveys can provide valuable insights for any organization. They establish critical benchmarks and guide effective messaging, issue assessments, tactical targeting and advocacy activation. See how Certus Insights approaches this specialized research and what it can do for your association, nonprofit or business: http://bit.ly/2KkjDke
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (50-49)
Donald Trump (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +4 (52-48)
RON’S COMMENT: This Emerson College poll of voters nationwide will surely raise eyebrows: Trump leads three of the four Democrats tested against him. And: Sanders and Warren do better against the president than does Biden. If this is accurate, and is confirmed by other polls, it’s good news for Trump and could spell the beginning of the end of Biden’s electability argument. Keep in mind, I said IF…. For more on Biden and the electability advantage, go to http://bit.ly/34egrPk
NATIONAL RECAP: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among voters nationwide
Here is the average of the four most recent national polls of Democratic primary voters:
Joe Biden: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: These averages are based on polls conducted before Wednesday’s debate. They provide a useful pre-debate baseline to track candidate progress after the debate.
NEW YORK: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Over the past month in this New York state poll, Biden is up 3, Warren is down 7, Sanders is down 3 and Buttigieg is up 1…. Unfortunately, former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg was not included in this trial heat, which would have been interesting…. Also: 35% of Democrats in the state think Biden has the best chance to win the presidency. New candidate Deval Patrick scores zero…. The primary is April 28.
NEW YORK STATE POLITICS
Among voters statewide
Among all general election voters statewide:
- Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg is 47% favorable/39% unfavorable.
- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is 30% favorable/62% unfavorable.
- Current NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is 27% favorable/52% unfavorable.
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo is 44% favorable/49% unfavorable.
- Pres. Donald Trump is 32% favorable/65% unfavorable.
Among only Democrats in New York state:
- Bloomberg is 55% favorable/36% unfavorable.
- Cuomo is 59% favorable/34% unfavorable.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 49% (same as last week)
Trump: 40% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 9 points, last week it was 8 points.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Emerson College, Nov. 17-20
NEW YORK: Siena College, Nov. 12-18
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 17-19
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment