Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 19, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 48% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-2 since yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
%=The Hill/Politico = Average
Joe Biden: 30% / 32% = 31
Bernie Sanders: 18% / 20% = 19
Elizabeth Warren: 15% / 17% = 16
Pete Buttigieg: 7% / 8% = 7.5
Kamala Harris: 4% / 5% = 4.5
Michael Bloomberg: 3% / 3% = 3
Andrew Yang: 2% / 3% / 2.5
Cory Booker: 1% / 2% = 1.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / 1% = 1.5
Am Klobuchar: 1% / 2% = 1.5
Julian Castro: 2% / 1% = 1.5
John Delaney: 2% / 1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Two national polls of Democrats give Biden a clear lead with Sanders second and Warren third…. Since the previous poll for The Hill two weeks ago, Biden is up 4, Warren is the same, Sanders is up 4 and Buttigieg is up 1 (we thought the numbers from that previous poll looked strangely low)….Since last week’s Politico/Morning Consult poll, Warren is down 2 and the rest of the top candidates all remained the same. Note:Deval Patrick, the newest entry, isn’t getting anything in this poll.
SOUTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 33%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Bernie Sanders: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Tom Steyer: 5%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Biden with a big lead in South Carolina, his early primary firewall.
IMPEACHMENT TRACKER
Among voters nationwide
Latest Polling on Support and Opposition to Impeachment
Marist (Nov. 11-19): Support: 47% / Oppose: 45%:
Morning Consult (Nov. 15-17): Support: 49% / Oppose: 41%
Economist/YouGov (Nov. 10-12): Should impeach: 45% / Should not impeach: 39%
CBS/YouGov (Nov. 9-11): Approve: 53% / Disapprove: 47%
Monmouth (Oct. 3 – Nov. 3): Good idea: 51% / Bad idea: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: All five of the latest impeachment polls show more support for impeachment than opposition, but the margin varies from +2 in the latest Marist poll to +8 in the Morning Consult poll. The question wording for these polls vary, which likely accounts for some of the differences:
- Marist: Based on what you know at this point, do you support or oppose the impeachment of President Trump?
- Morning Consult: Do you support or oppose the current impeachment inquiry into President Trump?
- Economist/YouGov: Do you think the U.S. House of Representatives should or should not impeach Donald Trump?
- CBS/YouGov: Do you approve or disapprove of Congressional Democrats starting an impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump?
- Monmouth: Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea for the House of Representatives to conduct an impeachment inquiry into President Trump that may or may not lead to impeachment?
YOUNG AMERICAN ATTITUDES
Among 18 to 29 year-olds nationwide
PARTISAN AFFILIATION: When it comes to voting, with which party do you consider yourself to be affiliated?
Democratic party: 40%
Republican party: 24%
Independent/Unaffiliated: 35%
NEWSWATCHING: Overall, how closely do you follow news about national politics?
Closely: 47%
Not closely: 52%
POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT: Do you consider yourself to be politically engaged or politically active?
Yes, politically engaged/active: 30%
No: 70%
BIG VS. SMALL CHANGE: Which of the following statements is closest to your own view?
- I prefer policies that stand a good chance of being achieved as opposed to sweeping changes that will be difficult to carry out: 40%
- I prefer big, structural policy changes that address the urgency of the problems that we are facing, even if they will not be easy to carry out: 34%
- Don’t know: 24%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Do you support or oppose dismantling the Electoral College to ensure that the winner of the national popular vote is elected President?
Support doing away with Electoral College: 40%
Oppose doing away with Electoral College: 24%
Don’t know: 35%
HEALTH INSURANCE: Do you support or oppose eliminating private health insurance companies so that all Americans receive health care coverage from the federal government?
Support: 38%
Oppose: 32%
Don’t know: 28%
CIVIC ACTIVITY: Have you participated in any of the following activities in the past 12 months?
- Volunteered for community service: 30%
- Followed at least one presidential candidate on social media: 27%
- Posted about a political cause or campaign on social media: 18%
- Followed at least one active member of the opposite party on social media: 18%
- Participated in political demonstration: 10%
- Volunteered on a political campaign for a candidate or an issue: 8%
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which current presidential candidate was born on the South Side of Chicago, received undergraduate and law degrees from Harvard, failed the California bar exam twice before passing it and later served as U.S. Assistant Attorney General?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Hill, Nov. 16-17; Politico/Morning Consult, Nov. 11-17
SOUTH CAROLINA: Quinnipiac, Nov. 13-17
YOUNG AMERICANS: Harvard Kennedy School, Oct. 15-28
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Deval Patrick.
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