Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 15, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
PENNSYLVANIA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (52-43)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (50-45)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (50-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Pennsylvania by a thin margin in 2016, but this poll shows all three Democrats leading him. As usual, Biden does best.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
Nevada Caucus
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Tom Steyer: 5%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads the Nevada caucus, with Warren and Sanders battling for second.
North Carolina Primary
% = Fox News/High Point = Average
Joe Biden: 37% / 33% = 35
Bernie Sanders: 14% / 18% = 16
Elizabeth Warren: 15% / 13% = 14
Pete Buttigieg: 6% / 4% = 5
Kamala Harris: 4% / 5% = 4.5
Cory Booker: 2% / 2% = 2
Amy Klobuchar: 1% / 3% = 2
Tom Steyer: 2% / 2% = 2
Andrew Yang: 2% / 2% = 2
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / 1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Both polls show Biden with substantial leads in North Carolina.
LOUISIANA: GOVERNOR 2019
Among voters statewide
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) over Eddie Rispone (R): +0.5 (46.5-46)
RON’S COMMENT: With leaners, Edwards leads by half a point. Without leaners, Rispone is ahead by half a point. Edwards wins blacks 88-8 and white Democrats 59-37. Rispone wins Republicans 79-11 and white independents 59-34. Women favor Edwards 50-42, but men favor Rispone 52-42. Most public and private polling in the runoff has given the edge to Edwards. But, turnout is the ballgame. It’s hard to gauge the turnout impact of Trump’s third visit yesterday, although Republicans are hopeful he gets enough pro-Trump votes out tomorrow, Election Day, to elect Rispone. Early voting indicates that black voters will vote higher than they did in the Oct. 12 primary, which would help Edwards.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 49% (+2 since last week)
Trump: 41% (same as last week)
It depends: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 8 points, last week it was 6 points.
EQUAL RIGHTS AMENDMENT
Among voters nationwide
The Equal Rights Amendment, first proposed in 1972, guarantees equal rights for all citizens regardless of sex. Would you support or oppose such an amendment being added to the US Constitution?
Support: 68%
Oppose: 16%
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: 87% of Democrats, 55% of independents, 53% of Republicans support the ERA.
BORDER WALL
Among voters nationwide
Do you favor or oppose building a wall along the US-Mexico border to try to stop illegal immigration?
Favor: 42%
Oppose: 49%
RON’S COMMENT: Support for the wall is a little below Trump’s job approval rating (44% vs. 42%) and opposition to it is below his job disapproval rating (55% vs. 49%). While 10% of Democrats favor the wall, 37% of independents and 81% of Republicans do.
TRUMP AND TWITTER
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the way Donald Trump uses Twitter is appropriate or inappropriate for the President of the United States?
Appropriate: 28%
Inappropriate: 61%
Not sure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: This is one of the few areas we’ve seen where Republicans do not solidly back the president. While 53% of Republicans believe the president’s use of Twitter is appropriate, 28% believe it’s inappropriate and 19% are unsure.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Morning Call, Nov. 4-9
NORTH CAROLINA: Fox News, Nov. 10-13; High Point, Nov. 1-7
NEVADA: Fox News, Nov. 10-13
LOUISIANA: JMC Analytics, Nov. 12-13
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, BORDER WALL, TWITTER: Economist/YouGov, Nov. 10-12
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