Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, November 13
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. The range is 40% (Politico) to 47% (The Hill). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today +1 from yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Elizabeth Warren: 26%
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is good news for Warren, showing her in first place––other recent polling has generally found her in second place…. Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick, two possible entries, were not included in this trial heat.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide
Pete Buttigieg: 22%
Joe Biden: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Buttigieg running first in Iowa and Warren, who led previous polls in the state, now running third. Biden is second. Buttigieg wins moderates with 26% and gets 15% of those Democrats who are the most left-leaning. Although he’s the youngest candidate, he’s also running a close second to Biden among Democrats 65 and older.
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
Among voters nationwide
Michael Bloomberg Favorability
Among all voters
Favorable: 24%
Unfavorable: 49%
Among Democrats
Favorable: 34%
Unfavorable: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: Bloomberg’s ratings among all voters nationwide is more than two-to-one negative. This former Republican mayor’s rating among Republicans is an awful 18% favorable/56% unfavorable. Among independents, it’s 16% favorable/40% unfavorable (which may be why he’s not running for president as an independent)…. Among Democrats, he’s also net negative, but by only 2 points. Bloomberg’s 34% negative rating among Democrats is higher than Biden’s (25%), Sanders’ (20%) and Warren’s (15%).
IMPEACHMENT
Among voters nationwide
INQUIRY APPROVAL: Do you approve or disapprove of Congressional Democrats starting an impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump?
Strongly/somewhat approve: 53%
Strongly/somewhat disapprove: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 46% of whites approve of the impeachment inquiry compared to 75% of blacks and 67% of Hispanics. 60% of 18 to 29 year-olds compared to 41% of those 65 and older approve. And, of course, 85% of Democrats approve compared to 17% of Republicans.
IMPROPER VS ILLEGAL: From what you have heard or read so far about Donald Trump’s handling of matters concerning Ukraine, do you think Donald Trump’s actions have been…
Proper: 26%
Not proper, but legal: 31%
Illegal: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: 79% of Democrats, 37% of independents and 6% of Republicans believe the president’s actions were illegal.
DESERVES IMPEACHMENT: From what you have heard or read so far about Donald Trump’s handling of matters concerning Ukraine, do you think Donald Trump deserves to be impeached over his actions, does not deserve to be impeached over his actions, or is it too soon to say?
Deserves to be impeached: 43%
Does not deserve to be impeached over his actions: 40%
It’s too soon to say: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Partisan views are a mirror image: 80% of Democrats believe Trump deserves to be impeached, while 80% of Republicans believe he does not.
UNUSUAL VS. TYPICAL: Compared to how past Presidents have dealt with foreign countries, do you feel Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine are probably…
Typical, the kind of thing most Presidents probably do with foreign countries: 42%
Unusual, something that few or no other Presidents have done with foreign countries: 58%
RON’S COMMENT: 85% of Democrats, 52% of independents and 29% of Republicans believe that Trump’s dealings with Ukraine are unusual.
HEARINGS AND WHISTLEBLOWER
Among adults nationwide
WHISTLEBLOWER IDENTITY: Do you think the names of any “whistleblowers” in the impeachment matter should be … ?
Allowed to stay private: 53%
Forced to be made public: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 20% of Democrats, 51% of independents and 76% of Republicans believe the names of whistleblowers should be made public.
WHISTLEBLOWER MOTIVATION: Do you think the motivation of the whistleblower who made the complaint about the phone call to Ukraine is probably … ?
To damage Trump politically: 39%
To protect the interests of the United States: 37%
Not sure yet, will have to wait and see: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 11% of Democrats, 46% of independents, and 75% of Republicans believe the motivations of the whistleblower is to damage Trump politically.
CAMPAIGN ATTENTION
Among voters nationwide
How much attention have you been paying to the [2020] election campaign for president?
A lot: 48%
Some: 28%
Only a little: 17%
None at all: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: A timely reminder that more than half of the electorate is not paying “a lot” of attention to the 2020 campaign. But the 48% who are is a big audience segment, not to mention the additional 28% who are paying “some” attention…. Democrats are paying “a lot” of attention more so than Republicans, by 9 points, which makes sense given the current race for the party’s presidential nomination. Independents are well behind the partisans on amount of attention being paid to the campaign.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, 2020 ATTENTION: Economist/YouGov, November 10-12
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS: Monmouth, Nov. 7-11
IMPEACHMENT: CBS/YouGov: Nov. 9-11
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