Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 12, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 47% (The Hill, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 since yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Michael Bloomberg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (43-37)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (45-39)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (45-40)
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (44-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Unlike just about every other poll, this Politico/Morning Consult survey shows Biden the weakest of Democrats tested against Trump. This will surely raise eyebrows––and cause some observers to question the results.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Michael Bloomberg: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This is the first recent poll we’ve seen with Bloomberg included. He starts off in sixth place and his negative rating is higher than all 15 Democrats in the race…. Over the past week, Biden has slipped 1 point, Warren has dropped 2, Sanders has stayed the same and Buttigieg is up 1.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads New Hampshire in this sounding, but it’s basically a four-way race. This will come as a disappointment to Warren, who led the previous five polls in a row. This survey shows Buttigieg in contention to run second or even first––which is similar to recent Iowa polling. What happens if Buttigieg does, in fact, win both Iowa and New Hampshire? Does he become––dare we say it––the new frontrunner?
- Among Democrats in New Hampshire, Biden gets 25%, Warren 24% and Buttigieg 16%. But, among independents––who can vote in the Democratic primary––Biden falls to 16%, Warren falls to 10% and Buttigieg is at 14%.
- Gabbard polls only 1% of Democrats, but she gets 10% of independents.
- Ideology: This survey finds that Warren is running first among the most left-leaning Democrats (35% to second-place Sanders’ 22%) and has Biden leading moderates (24% to second-place Buttigieg at 15%).
LOUISIANA: GOVERNOR 2019
Among voters statewide
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) over Eddie Rispone (R): +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Polls show this could be a nail-biter, all dependent upon turnout. This survey finds that 15% of Trump supporters are voting for Democrat Edwards, while 81% side with Rispone, who has tightly embraced Trump throughout the campaign. Edwards is also getting 10% of the primary votes that were cast for Republican Ralph Abraham. By race: 92% of blacks and 28% of whites vote for Edwards. If Edwards can’t move up his white vote into the 30s, he won’t win…. Incumbent Edwards has a job rating of 54% approve/38% disapprove…. The runoff election is this Saturday.
FAKE NEWS AND MAINSTREAM MEDIA
Among voters nationwide
How often do you think mainstream media outlets report something that could be described as “fake news”?
Most of the time: 35%
Sometimes: 29%
Rarely: 26%
Never: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: 35% of voters say the mainstream media reports fake news “most of the time” and another 29% say “sometimes”––for a total of 64%. 11% of Democrats, 30% of independents and 60% of Republicans say the mainstream media reports fake news “most of the time.”
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which public office did Nikki Haley hold before she was elected governor of South Carolina?
(see answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Nov. 4-10
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Quinnipiac, Nov. 6-10
LOUISIANA: Mason-Dixon/Fox8, runoff
FAKE NEWS AND MAINSTREAM MEDIA: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 3-5
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Haley was a member of the state House of Representatives, serving from 2005-2011. She became governor in 2011.
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