Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, November 6, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: The average shifted a bit in President Trump’s favor today. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-3 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Politico/The Economist = Average
Joe Biden: 32% / 26% = 29
Elizabeth Warren: 20% / 25% = 22.5
Bernie Sanders: 20% / 14% = 17
Pete Buttigieg: 7% / 8% = 7.5
Kamala Harris: 5% / 6% = 5.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / 3% = 2.5
Andrew Yang: 3% / 1% = 2
Amy Klobuchar: 2% / 2% = 2
Cory Booker: 2% / 2% = 2
Julian Castro: – / 3% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Two dueling polls today. One poll shows Biden with a clear lead and Sanders and Warren battling for second place. The other shows a tighter contest at the top with Sanders a more distant third. Since last week’s Politico/Morning Consult poll, there has been little movement for anybody. Since last week’s Economist/YouGov poll, Biden is down 1, Warren is up 2 and Sanders is the same.
NEVADA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide
Joe Biden: 29%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a clear lead in Nevada, with Warren and Sanders vying for second place.
MICHIGAN: SENATE 2020
Among voters nationwide
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (46-40)
RON’S COMMENT: This is a rather lackluster performance by incumbent Peters, who has a relatively low profile for a U.S. senator. He was first elected in 2014, defeating Republican Terri Lynn Land. Businessman and combat veteran James ran a strong race in 2018 when he challenged the state’s other senator, Debbie Stabenow (D). In that race, he lost by about the same 6-point margin that he’s losing by in this poll.
CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?
Approve: 23%
Disapprove: 64%
RON’S COMMENT: Congressional approval, which is higher than its been since April, is about half as much as presidential approval.
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK
Among voters nationwide
Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 30%
Wrong track: 61%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers haven’t moved much in recent months. However, since November of 2018, right direction has gone down 5 points and wrong track has gone up 6 points.
CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?
Approve: 23%
Disapprove: 64%
RON’S COMMENT: Congressional approval, which is higher than its been since April, is about half as much as presidential approval.
DRAIN THE SWAMP
Among voters
Donald Trump promised to “drain the swamp” when he got to Washington. Would you say that he has made progress draining the swamp, that he has made the swamp worse, or that nothing has really changed?
Made progress: 30%
Made swamp worse: 37%
Nothing has really changed: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage saying Trump has made progress is up 7 points from June, when it was 23%. But, it’s the same as it was in November 2018, at 30%.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 28-Nov. 3; The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 3-5
NEVADA: Nevada Independent, Oct. 28-Nov. 2
MICHIGAN: Emerson, Oct. 31-Nov. 2
CONGRESS, DRAIN THE SWAMP, RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK: Monmouth, Oct. 30-Nov. 3
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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