Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 1, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (WaPo/ABC) to 45% (The Economist, Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 41%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (higher than it has been for a long time), which is 13 points above his approval rating. This average reinforces the idea that, while Trump’s base is holding, opposition to him keeps solidifying.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 18%
Joe Biden: 17%
Michael Bennet: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: While this New York Times/Siena poll puts Warren first, what it really shows is a four-way battle in Iowa––where anything can happen. Fourth place for Biden in Iowa is not a very comfortable spot for the supposed frontrunner, and this is the second poll in a row showing that. Buttigieg is moving up. Sanders hangs in, to Warren’s detriment…. The previous poll, by Iowa State, had Warren ahead by 8 points, garnering 28% of the vote. It put Buttigieg second.
PENNSYLVANIA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Michael Bennet: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Compared to the early August poll by the same outfit, Biden is up 2 points and Warren is down 3 points…. Pennsylvania is a big state with plenty of delegates and is a critical swing state for the general election. It’s also where Biden was born. This poll shows him leading Warren by 12 points.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 48% (-1 since last week)
Trump: 41% (+1 since last week)
It depends: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 7 points, down from 9 points last week.
ISIS
Among voters nationwide
Has ISIS been completely defeated?
Yes: 6%
No: 77%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters overwhelmingly believe ISIS still hasn’t been defeated.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling ISIS?
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters approve of Trump’s handling of ISIS, although it falls short of a majority. By party: 16% of Democrats, 39% of independents and 84% of Republicans approve.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS: NYT, Siena, Oct. 25-30
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, Oct. 21-27
ISIS, TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 27-29
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