Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 25, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 43% (Rasmussen, The Economist, Emerson). The other two polls average 41%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.
WISCONSIN: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (50-44)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (48-46)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +2 (45-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Winning Wisconsin was critical to Trump’s election, a state he carried by a slim seven-tenths of a point. This poll shows three Democrats now leading the president by small to modest margins, with Biden doing best. Buttigieg is within striking distance.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Among Democratic voters in each state
California Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 28%
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Joe Biden: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Warren and Sanders are leading in California in this survey, which is at odds with the poll we reported Wednesday that had Biden first (33%), Warren second (18%) and Sanders third (17%). What to believe? We’ll need to wait for the next few polls to find out.
South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Kamala Harris: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Tom Steyer: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This new South Carolina poll puts Biden on top, but the gap between him and Warren is down to 11 points. The Monmouth poll we reported this week had the gap at a more robust 17 points.
TRUMP, SYRIA, ISIS
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling Syria?
Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 55%
RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans and 28% of independents approve of the way Trump is handling Syria.
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from the area near the international border between Syria and Turkey which has had the effect of leaving Syrian Kurds who fought against ISIS vulnerable to attack from the Turkish military?
Approve: 33%
Disapprove: 55%
RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Democrats, 62% of Republicans and 27% of independents approve of Trump’s decision.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 49% (same as last week)
Trump: 40% (same as last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 9 points, same as last week.
ELECTION THREATENING WAY OF LIFE
Among voters nationwide
Do you feel your own personal way of life is or is not under threat from the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected president?
Is under threat: 41%
Is not under threat: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: The stakes for the presidential election are high. 74% of Democratic voters feel their way of life is threatened if Trump is re-elected. Internals: 44% of voters under 35, 51% of women and 54% of nonwhites gave that response.
Do you feel your own personal way of life is or is not under threat from the prospect of a Democrat being elected president?
Is under threat: 37%
Is not under threat: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Republican voters say their way of life would be threatened if a Democrat is elected president. Internals: 44% of men, 43% of those 55 and older and 48% of whites without a college degree agree.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Port and Courier, Oct. 15-21
CALIFORNIA: KQED/NPR, Oct. 15-18
WISCONSIN: Marquette Law School, Oct. 13-17
TRUMP, SYRIA, ISIS, TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 20-22
WAY OF LIFE: Monmouth, Sept. 23-29
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