Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 22, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (CNN, The Economist) to 45% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENT
Among voters in each state
Florida
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (48-43)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (46-43)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +1 (43-42)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +3 (44-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Florida is the King of Swing States, which Trump won in 2016 by a small margin. This poll shows Biden does best against Trump––which continues to be his calling card in this race. But it also shows Warren leading and Buttigieg running close. Trump’s vote range is 43-44.
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D) over Donald Trump (R): +17 (55-38)
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (50-38)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +11 (51-40)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: All four Democrats beat Trump by clear margins in Minnesota, Klobuchar’s home state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump here by a thin 1.5-point margin. Republicans have had high hopes Trump would nab Minnesota next year, but this poll shows that may be wishful thinking.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = SurveyUSA/Politico = Average
Joe Biden: 32%/30% = 31
Elizabeth Warren: 22%/21% = 20.5
Bernie Sanders: 17%/18% = 17.5
Kamala Harris: 7%/6% = 6.5
Pete Buttigieg: 5%/6% = 5.5
Andrew Yang: 2%/3% = 2.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/3% = 2.5
Cory Booker: 2%/3% = 2.5
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/2% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The demise of Biden’s candidacy may have been exaggerated––at least according to these two polls which give the former VP a clear advantage…. The last debate was Oct. 15 and the SurveyUSA poll was taken Oct. 15-16 and the Politico poll was taken Oct. 16-20…. Since last week in the Politico poll, Biden is down 2 points, Warren stayed the same, Sanders is down 1 and Buttigieg and Klobuchar are each up 1…. In the Politico subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 27%, then Warren at 21% and Sanders at 18%.
100 SENATORS: JOB RATINGS
Among voters in each state
% = Approve/Disapprove
TOP 10
Vermont, Bernie Sanders (I/D): 65%/30%
Vermont, Patrick Leahy (D): 63%/24%
Wyoming, John Barrasso (R): 59%/ 26%
Maine, Angus King (I): 57%/30%
North Dakota, John Hoeven (R): 56%/22%
Wyoming, Mike Enzi (R): 56%/23%
Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar (D): 55%/32%
New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54%/34%
South Dakota, John Thune (R): 54%/34%
Delaware, Chris Coons (D): 52%/27%
UPPER MIDDLE RANGE
Utah, Mitt Romney (R): 52%/33%
South Dakota, Mike Rounds (R): 52%/ 34%
Massachusetts, Ed Markey (D): 51%/25%
Hawaii, Brian Schatz (D): 51%/28%
New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan (D): 51%/33%
South Carolina, Tim Scott (R): 50%/25%
Rhode Island, Jack Reed (D): 50%/27%
Delaware, Tom Carper (D): 50%/28%
Nebraska, Ben Sasse (R): 50%/32%
Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 50%/ 32%
Maryland, Ben Cardin (D): 49%/23%
Arkansas, John Boozman (R): 49%/27%
Washington, Maria Cantwell (D): 49%/27%
Georgia, David Perdue (R): 49%/27%
Virginia, Mark Warner (D):49%/30%
South Carolina, Lindsey Graham (R): 49%/ 35%
Texas, Ted Cruz (R): 49%/36%
Montana, Jon Tester (D): 49%/39%
Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren (D): 49%/41%
Oregon, Ron Wyden (D): 48%/27%
MIDDLE RANGE
Washington, Patty Murray (D): 48%/29%
Idaho, Mike Crapo (R):48%/30%
North Dakota, Kevin Cramer (R): 48%/30%
Arkansas, Tom Cotton (R): 48%/32%
Connecticut, Chris Murphy (D): 48%/35%
New York, Chuck Schumer (D): 48%/35%
West Virginia, Joe Manchin (D): 48%/42%
Mississippi, Roger Wicker (R): 47%/28%
Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema (D): 47%/29%
Montana, Steve Daines (R): 47%/31%
Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D): 47%/30%
West Virginia, Shelley Moore Capito (R): 47%/33%
Florida, Marco Rubio (R): 47%/34%
Florida, Rick Scott (R): 47%/36%
Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal (D): 47%/38%
Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin (D): 47%/37%
Maryland, Chris Van Hollen (D): 46%/22%
Louisiana, John Kennedy (R): 46%/26%
Idaho, Jim Risch (R): 46%/28%
Oklahoma, James Lankford (R): 46%/27%
Oklahoma, James Inhofe (R): 46%/29%
Utah, Mike Lee (R): 46%/31%
Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R): 46%/32%
Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R): 46%/32%
Virginia, Tim Kaine (D): 46%/34%
Hawaii, Mazie Hirono (D): 46%/36%
New Jersey, Cory Booker (D): 46%/36%
Louisiana, Bill Cassidy (R): 45%/27%
Alabama, Richard Shelby (R): 45%/30%
Michigan, Debbie Stabenow (D): 45%/34%
Texas, John Cornyn (R): 44%/26%
Georgia, Johnny Isakson (R): 44%/26%
Indiana, Mike Braun (R): 44%/27%
Oregon, Jeff Merkley (D): 44%/28%
Pennsylvania, Bob Casey (D): 43%/ 31%
Tennessee, Lamar Alexander (R): 43%/31%
Missouri, Josh Hawley (R): 43%/31%
New York, Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 43%/31%
New Mexico, Tom Udall (D): 43%/34%
New Mexico, Martin Heinrich (D): 43%/34%
LOWER MIDDLE
California, Kamala Harris (D): 43%/35%
California, Dianne Feinstein (D): 43%/38%
Nebraska, Deb Fischer (R): 43%/40%
Iowa, Chuck Grassley (R): 43%/41%
Maine, Susan Collins (R): 43%/49%
Indiana, Todd Young (R): 42%/25%
Kansas, Jerry Moran (R): 42%/29%
Minnesota, Tina Smith (D): 42%/29%
Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R): 42%/31%
Illinois, Tammy Duckworth (D): 42%/32%
Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 41%/30%
Wisconsin, Ron Johnson (R): 41%/32%
Alabama, Doug Jones (D): 41%/36%
Ohio, Rob Portman (R): 40%/32%
Colorado, Michael Bennet (D): 40%/33%
Alaska, Lisa Murkowski (R): 40%/39%
Kentucky, Rand Paul (R): 40%/40%
Nevada, Jacky Rosen (D): 39%/31%
Illinois, Dick Durbin (D): 39%/36%
Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey (R): 39%/36%
BOTTOM 10
Arizona, Martha McSally (R): 39%/37%
Missouri, Roy Blunt (R): 39%/38%
Iowa, Joni Ernst (R): 39%/43%
Kansas, Pat Roberts (R): 38%/36%
North Carolina, Richard Burr (R): 37%/34%
Kentucky, Mitch McConnell (R): 37%/50%
Michigan, Gary Peters (D): 36%/28%
Colorado, Cory Gardner (R): 36%/39%
New Jersey, Bob Menendez (D): 34 %/43%
North Carolina, Thom Tillis (R): 33%/38%
RON’S COMMENT: The two Vermont senators, Sanders and Leahy, maintain the highest ratings. New Jersey’s Menendez and North Carolina’s Tillis have the two lowest…. Six of the top 10 are Democrats or independents who caucus with Democrats and four are Republicans…. Presidential candidates Sanders and Klobuchar are in the top 10. Harris and Bennet rank in the lower middle range…. Arizona’s McSally, Iowa’s Ernst, Kentucky’s McConnell, Michigan’s Peters, Colorado’s Gardner and North Carolina’s Tillis are all in the bottom 10 and all are expected to have tough races next year…. Caveat: This data is based on surveys conducted between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2019. As such, some of these results may not provide an up-to-date reading.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
When was the last time a Republican presidential candidate won Minnesota?
(see answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MINNESOTA: Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon, Oct. 14-16
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: SurveyUSA, Oct. 15-16; Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 16-20
SENATOR JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, July 1 – Sept. 30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
1972. Nixon beat McGovern in Minnesota by nearly 6 points.
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment