Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 21, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Politico) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (+1 from Friday), which is 13 points higher than his approval rating.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide
Joe Biden: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll was taken after last week’s debate and it shows Biden edging Warren in Iowa with Buttigieg third. It also finds that only 35% of Iowa Democrats say their minds are made up and 64% say they might change their picks before the caucuses. That leaves plenty of room for mischief…. Warren leads second choice votes with 22% followed by Buttigieg at 14%….The top issue in the state is healthcare followed by climate change…. Debate performance: 39% of Iowa Democrats thought Buttigieg won the debate. Second was Klobuchar at 28% and third was a tie between Warren, Biden and Booker at 11% each.
LOUISIANA: GOVERNOR 2019
Among voters statewide
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) and Eddie Rispone (R): even (47-47)
RON’S COMMENT: The Edwards camp had hoped to win the open primary outright a week ago, but he fell short of the required majority by 3 points. Now Democrat Edwards faces a tough runoff against wealthy self-funder Rispone, a Trump Republican in a Trump Republican state. Rispone and GOP Cong. Ralph Abraham, who ran third, received a total of 51% of the vote in the primary. If this poll is accurate, it means that Rispone has already united the GOP base and now has a real shot at upsetting Democrat Edwards in the Nov. 16 runoff. Both sides are in heavy attack mode, and expensively so.
COLORADO: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide
John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner (R): +11 (53-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Former governor and Democratic presidential candidate Hickenlooper has a solid lead over GOP incumbent Gardner, which is not good news for Republicans who are trying to hold their Senate majority…. With a 60% unfavorable rating in Colorado, Trump poses a problem for Gardner, even though the first term GOP senator has been careful to keep some daylight between himself and the president. It should be noted that 92% of Republicans like Trump, but two-thirds of crucial independents dislike him––which sets up a tricky situation for Gardner. Also, Gardner’s personal rating is 34% favorable/45% unfavorable––compared to Hickenlooper’s 51% favorable/35% unfavorable.
50 GOVERNORS: JOB RATINGS
Among voters in each state
% = Approve/Disapprove
TOP 10
Massachusetts, Charlie Baker (R): 73%/16%
Maryland, Larry Hogan (R): 70%/16%
Vermont, Phil Scott (R): 64%/23%
Wyoming, Mark Gordon (R): 63%/13%
New Hampshire, Chris Sununu (R): 62%/26%
Texas, Greg Abbott (R): 59%/24%
Idaho, Brad Little (R): 59%/22%
Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson (R): 59%/24%
Oklahoma, Kevin Stitt (R): 59%/19%
Florida, Ron DeSantis (R): 58%/22%
North Dakota, Doug Burgum (R): 58%/19%
Alabama, Kay Ivey (R): 57%/30%
Tennessee, Bill Lee (R): 56%/19%
Mississippi, Phil Bryant (R): 55%/26%
Delaware, John Carney (D): 55%/25%
Utah, Gary Herbert (R): 55%/28%
Nebraska, Pete Ricketts (R): 54%/34%
South Carolina, Henry McMaster (R): 54%/26%
Pennsylvania, Tom Wolf (D): 53%/33%
Montana, Steve Bullock (D): 53%/31%
Georgia, Brian Kemp (R): 53%/28%
Louisiana, John Bel Edwards (D): 52%/31%
Kansas, Laura Kelly (D): 52%/23%
Nevada, Steve Sisolak (D): 52%/25%
Arizona, Doug Ducey (R): 52% /30%
Indiana, Eric Holcomb (R): 51%/23%
Minnesota, Tim Walz (D): 51%/29%
Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D): 49%/34%
Missouri, Mike Parson (R): 48%/25%
New York, Andrew Cuomo (D): 48%/41%
North Carolina, Roy Cooper (D): 48%/30%
South Dakota, Kristi Noem (R): 48%/41%
Ohio, Mike DeWine (R): 48%/32%
New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 47%/37%
Washington, Jay Inslee (D): 47%/35%
Colorado, Jared Polis (D): 46%/35%
Maine, Janet Mills (D): 46%/44%
Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer (D): 46%/34%
Iowa, Kim Reynolds (R): 45%/41%
New Jersey, Phil Murphy (D): 45%/38%
BOTOM 10
Illinois, JB Pritzker (D): 43%/42%
California, Gavin Newsom (D): 43%/36%
Alaska, Mike Dunleavy (R): 43%/41%
Virginia, Ralph Northam (D): 42%/38%
West Virginia, Jim Justice (R): 42%/47%
Oregon, Kate Brown (D): 38%/50%
Rhode Island, Gina Raimondo (D): 36%/56%
Hawaii, David Ige (D): 36%/50%
Connecticut, Ned Lamont (D): 35%/48%
Kentucky, Matt Bevin (R): 34%/53%
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans Baker and Hogan, governors of liberal Democratic states Massachusetts and Maryland, continue to hold the top two spots. The 14 most popular governors are all Republicans. Of the bottom 10, seven are Democrats and three are Republicans…. Republican Bevin, who is seeking re-election this year in red Kentucky, posts the worst rating…. Democrat Edwards, who is seeking re-election this year in red Louisiana, was recently forced into a runoff. Despite his positive leaning 52/31 rating, Edwards is now in a tough November 16 runoff against a Republican challenger…. Only five governors have approval ratings above 60% and 27 have approval ratings about 50%. Five have approval ratings below 40%…. Democrat Raimondo of Rhode Island has the highest negative rating, at 56%…. Democrat Bullock of Montana is currently running for president, and he rates pretty well at home with 53/31…. Caveat: This data is based on surveys conducted between July 1 and September 30, 2019. As such, some of these results may not reflect up-to-date readings.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: USA Today/Suffolk, Oct. 16-18
LOUISANA: We Ask America, Oct. 14-16
COLORADO: Keating Research-OnSight Public Affairs-Martin Campaigns,Oct. 10-14
GOVERNORS: JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, July 1-Sept. 30
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