Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 15, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Politico, Quinnipiac, Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Quinnipiac/Politico = Average
Joe Biden: 27%/32% = 29.5
Elizabeth Warren: 30%/21% = 25.5
Bernie Sanders: 11%/19% = 15
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/5% = 6.5
Kamala Harris: 4%/6% = 5
Andrew Yang: 2%/3% = 2.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/3% = 2.5
Cory Booker: 2%/3% = 2.5
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/1% = 1.5
Tom Steyer: 2%/1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Conflicting Polls Alert! The Politico/Morning Consult poll continues to show Biden clearly on top, while the Quinnipiac poll shows Warren with the lead. There is also a big 8-point difference on Sanders’ strength…. Since the June debates in the Politico poll, Biden has dropped 6 points, Warren has jumped up 8 points and Sanders has stayed the same. In their subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 31%, then Warren 19% and Sanders 14%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Elizabeth Warren: 25%
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire poll shows a three-way race at the top with Warren edging Biden. Among Democratic primary voters in this crucial state, Biden’s personal rating is 79% favorable/18% unfavorable; Sanders is 74% favorable/22% unfavorable; and Warren is 81% favorable/14% unfavorable.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Among Republican voters statewide
Donald Trump: 71%
Bill Weld: 14%
Joe Walsh: 5%
Mark Sanford: 1%
RON COMMENTS: Trump posts a gigantic lead in the New Hampshire GOP primary. However, if the 29% who aren’t voting for him would coalesce around one candidate, they could possibly make a fairly decent showing….Romney in New Hampshire: Among GOP primary voters in the state, Mitt Romney’s personal rating now leans decidedly negative, at 29% favorable/46% unfavorable. More evidence that Republican elected officials attack Trump at their own peril. In pre-Trump days, Romney did pretty well in New Hampshire. He won the 2012 primary with 39% of the vote.
UK PARTY POLITICS
Among voters in Great Britain
Political Party Preference:
% = Average of last two polls
Conservative:33%
Labour: 28.5%
Lib Dems: 17.5%
Brexit: 12%
Green: 3.5%
SNP: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is in first place. The Tories are up 3 points from a month ago, Labour is up 5 points, Liberal Democrats are down 2 points and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is down 1.5 points.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Mitt Romney won the 2012 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. Who ran second and third?
(see answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, Oct. 11-13; Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 7-13
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Boston Herald/FPU, Oct. 9-13
UK PARTY POLITICS: Panelbase/Sunday Times, ComRes/Daily Express, Oct. 9-11
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Ron Paul ran second (23%) and Jon Huntsman ran third (17%).
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