LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Dems Less Likely to Vote For Sanders Because of Health – Trump, Warren Lead Trump by 10 – Biden Tops Warren

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 11, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Politico, Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating…. It should be noted that none of these polls yet provide a solid reading of public reactions to the Syria pullout. We will have to wait until next week for that.

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (50-40)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (50-40)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: While it’s good for Biden to lead Trump by 10 points in this Fox News poll, it’s even better for Warren to post the same lead––it gives her a chance to erase Biden’s perceived electability advantage…. In the poll, Biden wins women by 22 points and Warren wins women by 24 points. Trump beats Biden among men by 3 points and he beats Warren among men by 7 points. Warren gets 78% of blacks and Biden gets 79%. Warren gets 60% of Hispanics and Biden gets 57%.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 32% 
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 4% 
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Biden on top nationally, and by a decent margin. Of the last six national polls, two have shown Biden ahead and four have shown Warren in first place. In this sounding, Biden beats Warren 33-22 among women, 30-22 among men, 31-26 among whites and 34-14 among nonwhites. Warren leads among second-choice votes over Biden 24-13.
Sanders’ health impact
[ASKED AMONG DEMOCRATS] Are you more or less likely to vote for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary because of concerns about his health, or does that not make much difference either way?
More likely to vote for Sanders: 15%
Less likely to vote for Sanders: 31%
No difference: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders’ health situation is not helping his campaign prospects. Though half of Democrats say it makes no difference to them, of those who say it does, it’s working against him by more than two-to-one (31% vs. 15%). Moreover, 42% of white college grads (Warren’s best constituency) say it makes them less likely to vote for Sanders and only 9% say more likely.

Among Republican voters nationwide

[ASKED OF REPUBLICANS] In 2020, would you like to see someone else as the Republican Party’s presidential nominee or would you rather keep Donald Trump as the nominee?
Would like to see Trump as the nominee: 77%
Would like to see someone else: 17%
Depends: 5%
Don’t know: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: White the vast majority of Republicans want to see Trump as their nominee, nearly one-fourth (23%) are either against his renomination or not sure…. A different poll shows Trump getting 84% of the GOP vote for renomination, with 3% for Joe Walsh, 3% for William Weld and 1% for Mark Sanford.

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 47% (-2 since last week)
Trump: 42% (+3 since last week)
It depends: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 5 points, which is down from last week when the margin was 10 points….Three numbers to watch over the next year: Trump’s vote in the generic test is 42%, and against three named Democrats he gets 40% (see trial heats above). All the while, his average job approval rating is 43%.Trump is operating within a tight 40-43% trading range, at least for now.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 6-8

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