Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 8, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: During this ferocious impeachment controversy, Trump still hangs on to his base, but his opposition keeps solidifying. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating…. A week ago, his disapproval rating was 8 points above his approval rating, now it’s 12.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The Politico/Morning Consult poll keeps Biden in the game. Most of the recent national polls have had Warren overtaking the former VP, but this Politico/Morning Consult poll shows Biden holding a clear lead. In fact, over the past week, it shows Biden going up a point––and he’s the only candidate who did go up…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 33%, then Sanders and Warren each with 18%.
Average of the last four national polls:
Joe Biden: 26.5
Elizabeth Warren: 26
Bernie Sanders: 14.3
Kamala Harris: 4.8
Pete Buttigieg: 6
Andrew Yang: 2.8
Beto O’Rourke: 2.3
Cory Booker: 1.3
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last four polls show a near tie for first place with a sizable gap between the two top contenders and third-place finisher, Sanders.
LOUISIANA: GOVERNOR
Among voters statewide
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D): 45%
Eddie Rispone (R): 22%
Ralph Abraham (R): 17%
Others: 6%
Undecided: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The open primary is this Saturday. The big question is whether incumbent Edwards, a Democrat, can win an outright majority without being forced into a runoff. As you can see, he’s tying the field 45-45 in this poll. GOP Congressman Abraham started off in second place, but the expensive ad campaign run by self-funder Rispone has changed the dynamics. Rispone has gone after fellow Republican Abraham while tying himself to Donald Trump. If the race goes into a runoff, strategists from both sides fear Edwards could be at risk. Trump carried Louisiana in 2016 by nearly 20 points…. This Mason-Dixon poll also tested runoff scenarios that show Edwards over Rispone +9 and Edwards over Abraham +15…. This poll shows Edwards is personally popular, with a job rating of 56% approve/34% disapprove…. Trump’s job rating in Louisiana is 51% approve/45% disapprove. Also, 35% of the state’s voters favor impeaching Trump, while 57% oppose doing so.
AFRICAN AMERICAN DEMOCRATS
Among black Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Cory Booker: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Pete Buttigieg: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll of black Democrats nationwide shows Biden with a big lead. He does a little better with black men than women (38% vs. 34%). Black voters 18-34 years old give Biden and Sanders 21% each.
FAVORABILITY OF WHISTLEBLOWER
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the whistleblower?
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of the whistleblower in the Trump-Ukraine affair.
TRUMP’S FIRST INTERESTS
Among voters nationwide
Whose interests do you think Donald Trump puts first?
The interests of the U.S.: 38%
His business interests: 49%
Business interests same as U.S. interests: 7%
Not sure: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: Only 38% of voters think Trump puts the country’s interests ahead of his own business interests––and 7% of Democrats, 29% of independents and 73% of Republicans agree.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
What was the first public office to which Joe Biden was elected?
(see answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Sept. 30-Oct. 5
TRUMP’S FIRST INTERESTS, WHISTLEBLOWER FAVORABILITY: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 28-Oct. 1
AFRICAN AMERICAN DEMOCRATS: The Hill/HarrisX, Sept. 18-23
LOUISIANA: Mason-Dixon, Oct. 1-4
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Joe Biden was first elected to the New Castle County Council, Delaware, in 1969.
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