Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 7, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Among general election voters nationwide:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (51-44)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (49-46)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to do better against Trump than do other Democrats….But: Is it possible that the Ukraine affair is hurting Biden more than Trump? Based on these numbers, it is: This IBD/TIPP poll finds that 8% of general election voters say they’re more inclined to vote for Biden because of the Ukraine and 23% are more likely to vote against him. And, 15% of general election voters say they’re more inclined to vote for Trump because of the Ukraine and 18% are more likely to vote against him.
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide:
Elizabeth Warren: 27%
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Warren edges Biden for top spot. Yang is running even with Harris in this poll and above O’Rourke, who has gone nowhere since his “Hell yes” moment in the last debate.
WISCONSIN: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (48-39)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (45-40)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (45-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by seven-tenths of a point. In this Fox News polling, the three top Democrats are now leading him…. Looking at the internals: Biden beats Trump by 21 points among women, 4 points among men and 5 points among whites. Trump wins white Evangelicals by 26 points…. Warren beats Trump by 15 points among women and ties him among whites. Trump wins men by 9 points and white Evangelicals by 34 points.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Among Democratic voters in each state
Wisconsin
Joe Biden: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin often turns out to become an important primary. This poll shows Biden with the lead and Warren a decent second. It also finds that 61% of Biden’s voters, 61% of Warren’s voters and 75% of Sanders’ voters “strongly” support their candidates.
South Carolina
Joe Biden: 41%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Pete Buttigieg: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Despite rumors of the demise of the Biden campaign, he’s still doing pretty well in South Carolina, his early firewall state. This Fox News poll shows Biden going up 6 points and Warren going up 7 points since mid-July. It also shows Sanders and Harris moving down. Steyer is showing a little life in this poll.
FAVORABILITY OF TRUMP ADVISORS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Rudy Giuliani: 41%/48%
Mike Pompeo: 34%/41%
William Barr: 33%/41%
John Bolton: 29%/42%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Republicans: AG Barr is 55% favorable/14% unfavorable, former National Security Advisor Bolton is 44% favorable/20% unfavorable, former NYC Mayor Giuliani is 72% favorable/16% unfavorable and Secretary of State Pompeo is 58% favorable/12% unfavorable.
SOURCES
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: IBD/TIPP, Sept. 26-Oct. 3
WISCONSIN, SOUTH CAROLINA: Fox News, Sept. 29-Oct. 2
FAVORABILITY OF TRUMP ADVISORS: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 28-Oct. 1
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