Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 3, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Since yesterday, President Trump’s job rating bounced back up a point, but his negative rating went up 2 points––which likely means his base is holding but his opposition is solidifying…. Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Politico, Quinnipiac) to 49% (The Hill). Without these extremes, the remaining two polls average 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+2 from yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = The Economist/Monmouth
Elizabeth Warren: 28%/28% = 28
Joe Biden: 22%/25% = 23.5
Bernie Sanders: 13%/15%= 14
Pete Buttigieg: 7%/5% = 6
Kamala Harris: 5%/5% =5
Andrew Yang: 3%/2% = 2.5
Beto O’Rourke: 3%/1% = 2
Michael Bennet: 2%/- = 1.5
Cory Booker: 2%/1% = 1.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/1% = 1.5
Marianne Williamson: -/2% = 1
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: These two new national polls are a body blow to Biden’s campaign. Both show Warren overtaking the former VP. Sanders is in third place, but a somewhat distant third.
CALIFORNIA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Joe Biden: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: California is a three-way battle, based on this poll. Sanders trounces the field among voters under 45 (38%), but he falls back among older voters (10%). Harris is running a single-digit fourth in her home state…. But, poll internals shows the race is still fluid, with a majority of Democratic voters still shopping: “Among Democratic primary likely voters who have a candidate preference, 53 percent say they would consider supporting someone else, while 44 percent say they would definitely support their current candidate as long as he or she is in the race.”
IMPEACHMENT
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the U.S. House of Representatives should or should not try to impeach President Trump?
Should try to impeach: 50%
Should not try to impeach: 39%
Not sure: 11%
If the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Donald Trump, do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not remove him from office?
Should remove from office: 51%
Should not remove from office: 39%
Not sure: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows half the electorate favors both impeachment and removal from office. By party: 83% of Democrats, 40% of independents and 13% of Republicans favor removal.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 28-Oct. 1; Monmouth, Sept. 23-29
CALIFORNIA: PPIC, Sept. 16-25
IMPEACHMENT: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 28-Oct.
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