Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 2, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Over the past two days, President Trump has declined 2 points. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 37% (CNBC) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
New Hampshire Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 25%
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire poll has Warren and Biden fighting it out for first place with Sanders sinking to a distant third.
South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 37%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 8%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: In this poll, Biden gets more votes than Warren, Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg combined. That’s called a firewall. In this case, a southern firewall….Race: Biden gets 46% of blacks in South Carolina and 22% of whites. Warren beats him among whites by 7 points…. Reparations: 53% of all Democrats in South Carolina, 69% of black Democrats and 33% of white Democrats support reparations for slavery…. Confederate monuments: 46% of all Democrats in South Carolina want to move them to museums, 12% want to remove them completely, 15% want to leave them as they are and 23% want to leave them but add a plaque or marker for context.
North Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 31%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Cory Booker: 4%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Another southern firewall for Biden. He holds an 11-point lead over Sanders, who leads Warren by 5 points. Biden also wins the state’s favorability popularity poll, getting 70% of Democrats, compared to 61% for Sanders and 53% for Warren. Also: 61% of Democrats say they saw some of the debates.
IMPEACHMENT
Among voters nationwide
Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the Presidency, or not?
Yes, should: 43%
No, should not: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: 9% of Republicans, 41% of independents and 77% of Democrats say Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave office.
Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea for the House Judiciary Committee to conduct an impeachment inquiry into President Trump that may or may not lead to impeachment?
Good idea: 49%
Bad idea: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: These results shows how public opinion differs when the issue is impeachment and compelling the president to leave office as opposed to just conducting an impeachment inquiry.
BIDEN AND UKRAINE
Among voters nationwide
President Trump claims that Joe Biden put pressure on Ukrainian officials to get them not to investigate his son’s business dealings there. Do you think Biden probably did or probably did not do this?
Probably did: 43%
Probably did not: 37%
Don’t know: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters, though less than a majority, say Biden probably did put pressure on Ukrainian officials to get them not to investigate his son’s business dealings. 67% of Republicans, 43% of independents and 19% of Democrats agree.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Winthrop Univ., Sept. 21-30
NORTH CAROLINA: High Point, Sept. 13-19
IMPEACHMENT, BIDEN: Monmouth, Sept. 23-29
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment