LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Confidence in Institutions – South Carolina, Nevada

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 30, 2019

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: The Ukraine affair is still not having a measurable impact on President Trump’s job rating. We’ll see if that changes this week as polls catch up with events…. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Friday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state

South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 37%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 4% 
Kamala Harris: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s southern firewall is holding. The average of the two previous South Carolina polls had Biden at 39.5%, Sanders at 17% and Warren at 15.5%…. Sanders leads on all the major issues.
 
Nevada Caucus
Joe Biden: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 4% 
Tom Steyer: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows it a three-way race in Nevada. The average of the two previous Nevada polls had Biden at 25%, Sanders at 21.5% and Warren at 18.5%.

CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS
Among voters nationwide

How much confidence do you, yourself, have in each one of the following institutions in American society? 
 
% = A great deal + quite a lot of confidence 
The military: 67%
The police: 46%
The FBI: 37%
U.S. Supreme Court: 36%
The NSA: 32% 
Newspapers: 27% 
Television News: 22%
The criminal justice system: 22%
Congress: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: The military is the only institution tested that receives “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence from a majority of U.S. voters. The police are second and Congress is last…. Big partisan differences:

• 53% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the military.
• 30% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the police. 
• 40% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers.
• 33% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in TV news.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SOUTH CAROLINA, NEVADA: CNN, Sept. 22-26
CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 22-24

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