LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Impeachment Support Rising – Deep State – Foreign Policy – Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 27, 2019

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: So far, the Ukraine affair does not appear to have had much or any impact on President Trump’s job rating. It should be noted that today’s average is based on polling conducted between Sunday and Wednesday, which means it won’t capture the full impact of this week’s events, whatever it may be…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 49% (+1 since last week)
Trump: 39% (-1 since last week)
It depends: %
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by a 10-point margin, up 2 points from last week.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 28% 
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 3% 
Andrew Yang: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: After several days of polling that has shown Warren either matching or overtaking Biden, this new Harvard/Harris poll––which Mark Penn helps supervise––has Biden with a clear lead. It does show, however, that Biden has dropped 4 points since the end of August and Warren has risen 5 points.

Among voters nationwide

As you may know, the first step toward removing a president from office is impeachment. Do you believe Congress should or should not begin impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office? 
Yes, Congress should begin impeachment proceedings: 43% 
No, Congress should not begin impeachment proceedings: 43% 
Don’t know/No opinion: 13% 
RON’S COMMENT: America is divided on impeachment, 43-43. But, the trend is in favor of impeachment: Over the last four days, support for starting impeachment went up 7 points while opposition went down 6 points …. Democrats favoring the start of impeachment jumped from 66% to 79% over the last four days, independents went from 33% to 39% and Republicans went from 5% to 10%.

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling foreign policy?
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 57%
Do you believe President Trump has too friendly of an attitude towards allies of the United States, too unfriendly of an attitude towards U.S. allies, or has about the right attitude towards U.S. allies?
Too friendly: 6%
Too unfriendly: 43%
Right attitude: 44%
Do you believe President Trump has too friendly of an attitude towards adversaries of the United States, too unfriendly of an attitude towards adversaries, or has about the right attitude towards U.S. adversaries?
Too friendly: 39%
Too unfriendly: 11%
Right attitude: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: Approval of Trump’s handling of foreign policy breaks sharply along party lines––81% of Republicans, 3% of Democrats and 29% of independents approve. Also, 8% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats, and 48% of independents think the President has been too unfriendly towards U.S. allies and 8% of Republicans, 69% of Democrats and 45% of independents believe Trump has been too friendly towards U.S. adversaries.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think the “deep state” is working to overthrow President Trump? 
Yes: 39%
No: 34%
Not sure: 27%
RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Democrats, 31% of independents and 69% of Republicans say the “deep state” is working to overthrow President Trump.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, DEEP STATE: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 22-24
STARTING IMPEACHMENT PROCESS: Politico/Morning Consult, Sept. 24-26
FOREIGN POLICY: Quinnipiac, September 19-23

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