Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 26, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Quinnipiac) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 since yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Elizabeth Warren: 27%
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Another national poll showing Warren edging Biden for the nomination. This Warren movement is looking more like a real surge every day. This new poll from The Economist, when compared to their poll a week ago, shows Warren up 6 points, Sanders up 2 and Biden down 1. The survey also finds Harris falling from 6% to 4%, Buttigieg sliding from 9% to 6%, O’Rourke going from 3% to 2% and Booker going from 2% to nothing.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
California Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 29%
Joe Biden: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: If this poll is accurate, it shows Warren is in position to win this gigantic March 3 primary. In addition to the topline trial heat numbers, it also finds that 68% of the state’s Democratic primary voters are giving at least some consideration to supporting Warren’s candidacy––indicating plenty of room for growth. None of her opponents break out of the 40s on the total consideration question.
Georgia Primary
Joe Biden: 41%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 8%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Even though Warren is overtaking Biden in some national and state polls, the former VP holds on to large leads in many southern states. In Georgia, Biden gets 44% of white Democrats and 39% of black Democrats. By region, he receives 36% in metro Atlanta and 49% outside.
TRUMP AND THE UKRAINE AFFAIR
Among voters nationwide
Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for the President to threaten withholding foreign aid to a country if that country refuses to take an action which the President directs?
Appropriate: 30%
Inappropriate: 50%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Democrats, 22% of independents and 59% of Republicans say it’s appropriate for the President to threaten withholding foreign aid to a country if that country refuses to take an action which the President directs.
Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for federal employees in the intelligence community to file complaints against the actions of the U.S. President?
Appropriate: 55%
Inappropriate: 31%
Not sure: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Democrats, 44% of independents and 26% of Republicans say it’s appropriate for federal employees in the intelligence community to file complaints against the actions of the U.S. President.
Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for the President to request a foreign government open an investigation of one of his potential political opponents?
Appropriate: 24%
Inappropriate: 55%
Not sure: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: 7% of Democrats, 19% of independents and 48% of Republicans say it’s appropriate for the President to request a foreign government open an investigation of one of his potential political opponents.
Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for the President to threaten withholding foreign aid to a country if that country refuses to take an action which personally benefits the President?
Appropriate: 14%
Inappropriate: 55%
Not sure: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: 4% of Democrats, 12% of independents and 31% of Republicans say it’s appropriate for the President to threaten withholding foreign aid to a country if that country refuses to take an action which personally benefits the President.
Do you think Donald Trump’s actions have jeopardized U.S. national security, or not?
Yes, his actions jeopardized U.S. national security: 50%
No, his actions did jeopardize U.S. national security: 38%
Not sure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: 79% of Democrats, 38% of independents and 13% of Republicans say Trump’s actions have jeopardized U.S. national security.
UPPER AGE LIMIT ON PRESIDENTS
Among voters nationwide
As you may know, the youngest someone can be in order to serve as President of the United States is 35 years old. Would you.…
Support limiting the oldest someone can be to serve as president: 41%
Oppose limiting the oldest someone can be to serve as president: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters oppose putting an upper age limit on presidents, but a substantial 41% would support doing so. Of course, the poll question doesn’t specify an age number. Note that 49% of 18 to 34 year olds and 53% of voters 65 and older oppose an upper age limit.
SOURCES
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, TRUMP AND THE UKRAINE AFFAIR: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 22-24
CALIFORNIA: Berkeley IGS, Sept. 13-18
GEORGIA: Landmark, Sept. 18-21
AGE: Quinnipiac, September 19 – 23
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