Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 10, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (WaPo/ABC) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds on! Over the last week, Biden went up 1 point, Sanders went up 1, Harris went down 1 and Yang went up 2 in this Politico/Morning Consult survey …. The poll report points out that, “Warren is the second choice of 18 percent of Democratic primary voters – up from 11 percent in February. The growth in second choice support has come while she has captured a larger share of first place support”….In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 33%, then Sanders 20% and Warren 15%…. Among voters who are “extremely interested” in the election, it’s Biden 30%, Warren 23%, Sanders 17%, Harris 8%, O’Rourke % and Buttigieg 7%.
FAVORABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Bernie Sanders: 75%/18%
Joe Biden: 72%/20%
Elizabeth Warren: 64%/15%
Kamala Harris: 56%/18%
Pete Buttigieg: 48%/12%
Cory Booker: 48%/15%
Beto O’Rourke: 47%/16%
Andrew Yang: 36%/11%
Julian Castro: 36%/15%
Amy Klobuchar: 35%/15%
Tulsi Gabbard: 26%/16%
Bill de Blasio: 23%/25%
Tim Ryan: 22%/20%
Michael Bennet: 21%/11%
Tom Steyer: 21%/12%
John Delaney: 20%/15%
Marianne Williamson: 20%/21%
Steve Bullock: 19%/12%
RON’S COMMENT: In this poll, Sanders now has the best favorability rating of any candidate among Democratic voters. Warren has the lowest negative rating among the top four. Note that de Blasio and Williamson have net negative ratings.
CHINA AND TRADE
Among adults nationwide
How concerned are you that the current trade dispute with China will raise the price of things you and your family buy?
Very concerned: 33%
Somewhat concerned: 27%
Not so concerned: 14%
Not at all concerned: 24%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows a total of 60% of Americans are concerned that the trade dispute with China will raise consumer prices in the U.S.––including 84% of Democrats, 32% of Republicans and 60% of independents. Women more than men are concerned (68% vs. 52%). Also, 55% of non-college whites––which is President Trump’s base––say they’re concerned.
GUN LAWS
Among adults nationwide
Who do you trust more to handle gun laws in this country: Trump or Democrats in Congress?
Trump: 36%
Democrats in Congress: 51%
Both equally: 1%
Neither: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 6% of Democrats, 79% of Republicans and 33% of independents trust Trump more.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
The winner of the South Carolina Republican presidential primary went on to win the GOP’s presidential nomination in every election since 1980––except one. Name the one time the South Carolina primary winner did not win the nomination?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CHINA AND TRADE, GUN LAWS: Washington Post/ABC, Aug. 2-5
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, FAVORABILITY: Politico/Morning Consult, Aug. 2-8
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
2012. Newt Gingrich won that year’s South Carolina Republican presidential primary with 40% of the vote, defeating Mitt Romney, who ultimately won the nomination.
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