Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 29, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less in both polls not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The Economist poll has had Biden in the 20s since early June, when most other polls have had him in the 30s. But, when you compare last week’s poll to this week’s, Biden is up 3 points, Sanders is down 5 and Warren is up 3. We’ve been seeing a good bit of fluctuation in Sanders’ and Warren’s support levels by poll. They’ve been in a struggle for second place for a couple of months now, a struggle many political consultants expect Warren to win, as this poll indicates.
MICHIGAN: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (51-41)
Elizabeth Warren (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (49-43)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (48-44)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (46-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Michigan proved to be a critical swing state in 2016 that Trump won by a tiny margin. This poll shows these four Democrats now beating him, with Biden doing best. Of course, early polls in 2016 showed Hillary Clinton beating Trump in Michigan, too.
Looking at the Democratic governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, her job rating is 43% approve/45% disapprove and her personal favorable rating is 46%. Whitmer was elected last November with 53% of the vote.
FRIEND OR ENEMY?
Among voters nationwide
Do you consider the countries listed below to be a friend or an enemy of the United States?
% = Ally/friend
Canada: 89% (+1 from six months ago)
United Kingdom: 87% (+2)
France: 78% (+2)
Japan: 76% (-3)
Denmark: 75%
Germany: 74% (same)
South Korea: 74% (same)
Israel: 69% (-2)
Mexico: 63% (+2)
China: 20% (-5)
Russia: 12% (same)
North Korea: 6% (-1)
Iran: 5% (-1)
RON’S COMMENT: Over the past three months, China’s “ally/friend” rating in the U.S. has gone down 5 points. By party: Democrats currently rate China 10 points better than do Republicans. Republicans rate Israel 24 points better than do Democrats. However, Democrats rate Mexico 14 points better than do Republicans.
HATE CRIMES
Among voters nationwide
Thinking about the nation as a whole, do you think crimes motivated by hatred (racist, anti-religious, homophobic and anti-ethnic) over the past 12 months are higher or lower compared to ten years ago?
Higher: 65%
About same: 21%
Lower: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 76% of Democrats, 48% of Republicans, 59% of whites and 65% of blacks say the number of hate crimes in the U.S. is higher now than 10 years ago.
BIDEN ELECTABILITY
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS: If [Joe Biden] were to become the Democratic nominee, do you think [he] would beat or lose to Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election?
Probably beat Trump: 67%
Probably lose to Trump: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: A week ago in this poll, 65% of Democratic primary voters said Biden would beat Trump. Now, it’s 67%…. 60% of Democrats also say Warren would beat Trump, 57% say Sanders would and 46% say Harris would.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 24-27
FRIEND OR ENEMY, HATE CRIMES, BIDEN ELECTABILITY: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 24-27
MICHIGAN: EPIC/MRA, Aug. 17-21
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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