LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Dueling Polls on Biden – Healthcare – North Carolina

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 27, 2019

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Monmouth) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = Monmouth/Morning Consult
Joe Biden: 19%/33% = 26
Bernie Sanders: 20%/20% = 20
Elizabeth Warren: 20%/15% = 17.5
Kamala Harris: 8%/8% = 8
Pete Buttigieg: 4%/5% = 4.5
Cory Booker: 4%/3% = 3.5
Andrew Yang: 3%/2% = 2.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/3% = 2.5
Julian Castro: 2%/1% = 1.5
Marianne Williamson: 2%/1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less in both polls not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: If the much-discussed Monmouth poll is accurate, it’s a big blow to the Biden campaign, showing him dropping to third place…. On the other hand, the Politico/Morning Consult poll shows something entirely different when it comes to Biden. They have him in clear first place with a 13-point lead over Sanders and a 18-point lead over Warren. They also show Biden moving up 2 points since last week. While the two polls diverge on Biden (by 14 points) and to a lesser extent on Warren (by 5 points), they show similar results for all the other candidates…. What to believe? The answer is always the same––let’s wait for a few more polls before we look for a trend. Many political observers believe one of these polls is just plain wrong.

NORTH CAROLINA: SENATE 
Among Republican voters statewide

Republican Senate primary
Sen. Thom Tillis (R) over Garland Tucker (R): +7 (38-31)
 
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows GOP Sen. Tillis leading Republican primary challenger Tucker by 7 points––not an impressive showing for an incumbent among voters in his own party. While Tillis has voted with Trump over 90% of the time, some pro-Trump conservatives are dissatisfied with his positions on immigration, the special counsel and the president’s national emergency declaration. Tucker is a Harvard Business School graduate and a wealthy businessman. The Tillis camp is criticizing Tucker for his opposition to Trump in the 2016 GOP nomination contest. It’s all about Trump!.…Democrats running for the seat include former Mecklenburg County Commissioner Trevor Fuller, state Sen. Erica Smith and Raleigh attorney Eva Lee. The primary is March 3, the same day as the North Carolina presidential primary.

HEALTHCARE
Among Democratic voters nationwide

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] Which of the following comes closest to how you would like to see healthcare handled…

• Get rid of all private insurance coverage in favor of having everyone on a single public plan like Medicare–for-All: 22%
• Allow people to either opt into Medicare or keep their private coverage: 53% 
• Keep health insurance private for people under age 65 but regulate the costs: 7% 
• Keep the health insurance system basically as it is: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats want a major overhaul of the healthcare system––75% want either Medicare-for-All or a public option. Medicare as an option, however, is much more popular than it is as a replacement for private insurance (53-22). Only 18% of Democrats basically want the status quo. Another way to look at these numbers is that 71% of Democrats want to continue the system of private medical insurance, at least as an option.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Since 1952, four presidential candidates from Massachusetts won the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Name them.
 
(See answer below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Monmouth Univ., Aug. 16-20; Politico/Morning Consult, Aug. 19-25
HEALTHCARE: Monmouth Univ., Aug. 16-20
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), Aug. 19-20

TRIVIA ANSWER

1. John Kerry in 2004. He received 39% of the vote. 
2. Paul Tsongas in 1992. He received 33% of the vote. 
3. Michael Dukakis in 1988. He received 36% of the vote.
4. John Kennedy in 1960. He received 85% of the vote.

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