Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 22, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, from 41% (CNN) to 48% (Rasmussen)…. Without the two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 since yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval.
PRESIDENT: NATIONWIDE
Among all voters
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (42-35)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (40-35)
Elizabeth Warren (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (35-35)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +3 (35-32)
RON’S COMMENT: This Politico/Morning Consult poll is showing an unusually high undecided vote in these presidential trial heats, between 23% and 33%. It finds that 20% of Democrats and 18% of Republicans are undecided in the Biden vs. Trump race…. In any case, Biden remains the strongest Democrat against Trump…. Biden wins men 41-39, women 43-31, Millennials 44-29, Gen X 41-37 and Boomers 43-38. Trump wins Christians 44-37, while Biden wins non-Christians 58-22. Among only Evangelicals, Trump wins 51-29. Biden wins government employees 51-25.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The Economist poll usually shows Biden with a lower percentage than do other polls. This newest one indicates the race is nearly a three-way contest, with Biden, Sanders and Warren vying for first place. That’s different from other national polls which continue to show Biden a good bit ahead of the pack. Anyway, compared to last week’s poll from The Economist, this one has Biden down 1, Sanders up 3, Warren down 2, Harris the same and Buttigieg up 2.
CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS
Among voters nationwide
Are you confident in each of the Democratic presidential candidates’ abilities to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about each one of their approaches?
% = General electorate/Democratic electorate
Joe Biden
Confident: 41%/67%
Uneasy: 44%/19%
Elizabeth Warren
Confident: 40%/69%
Uneasy: 43%/12%
Bernie Sanders
Confident: 37%/65%
Uneasy: 48%/19%
Kamala Harris
Confident: 33%/55%
Uneasy: 44%/18%
Pete Buttigieg
Confident: 28%/46%
Uneasy: 43%/18%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Democratic presidential candidates, Biden, Warren and Sanders are perceived by the Democratic electorate to be best able to handle an international crisis. Though Biden is a former Vice President and chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Warren tops him among Democrats on this issue.
WHO CAN BEAT TRUMP?
Among Democrats nationwide
[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] If the candidate listed below were to become the Democratic nominee, do you think they would beat or lose to Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election?
Joe Biden
Probably beat Donald Trump: 66%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 13%
Not sure: 20%
Bernie Sanders
Probably beat Donald Trump: 60%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 18%
Not sure: 23%
Elizabeth Warren
Probably beat Donald Trump: 58%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 16%
Not sure: 26%
Kamala Harris
Probably beat Donald Trump: 43%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 22%
Not sure: 35%
Pete Buttigieg
Probably beat Donald Trump: 30%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 32%
Not sure: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: More Democrats think Biden can beat Trump than any other candidate. But, Sanders and Warren are not that far behind. It appears that electability is hurting Harris (only 43% of Democrats think she can beat Trump) and severely damaging Buttigieg (only 30% of Democrats think he can beat Trump).
INFRASTRUCTURE PRIORITY
Among voters nationwide
How important of a priority should [passing an infrastructure spending bill] be for Congress?
A top priority: 33%
An important, but lower priority: 39%
Not too important a priority: 13%
Should not be done: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: A total of 72% of the electorate thinks passing an infrastructure bill is an important or top priority––and 75% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and 65% of independents agree.
EQUAL PAY
Among voters nationwide
Government’s role: Do you think the federal government should take a more active role to ensure equal pay for men and women who are doing the same job, or do you think the government is already doing enough?
Take a more active role to ensure equal pay for men and women who are doing the same job: 58%
The federal government is already doing enough: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: 49% of men, 69% of women, 83% of Democrats, 58% of independents and 35% of Republicans think the federal government should take a more active role to ensure equal pay.
Athlete’s pay: What should determine how much male and female athletes make?
How successful they are: 43%
How much revenue they generate: 36%
Not sure: 21%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT, INFRASTRUCTURE PRIORITY: Politico/Morning Consult, Aug. 16-18
CONFIDENCE IN AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS, WHO CAN BEAT TRUMP, EQUAL PAY: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 17-20
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