LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Hickenlooper Leads Gardner in Colorado – Arizona Senate – Nevada – Historical Ratings

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls with an unusually narrow range: from 43% (WSJ/NBC, Fox News, Reuters) to 44% (Rasmussen, The Economist/YouGov)…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval.

At the same point in their presidencies

Donald Trump: 43% 
Barack Obama: 40%
George W. Bush: 59%
Bill Clinton: 46%
George H. W. Bush: 71%
Ronald Reagan: 43%
Jimmy Carter: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: As you can see, Trump’s job rating is the same as Reagan’s and better than Obama’s and Carter’s at this time in their presidencies…. Trump’s rating in this analysis is based on today’s Lunchtime Politics daily average; the other presidents’ ratings are based on Gallup poll data.

Among voters statewide

John Hickenlooper(D) over Sen. Cory Gardner (R): +13 (53-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Former Gov. Hickenlooper, who recently dropped out of the presidential contest, is now considered a possible Democratic candidate for the Senate seat in Colorado. Polls find that he leads other Democratic primary Senate contenders by wide margins…. This poll shows Hickenlooper beating Republican incumbent Gardner by a wide 13-point margin. Hickenlooper leads independents 55-34.

Among voters statewide

Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +5 (46-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This Senate race is shaping up to be, perhaps, the most interesting of the 2020 election season. This poll shows Democrat Kelly leading incumbent Republican McSally, who was appointed to the seat after Sen. John McCain died. In May, this same poll had McSally leading by a point. In this new survey, McSally trails Kelly by 9 points in Maricopa County, the state’s dominant county with a population of 4.4 million…. McSally lost a bid for the state’s other Senate seat in 2018 to Kyrsten Sinema (D) by a thin margin. 

Among voters statewide

Among all general election voters in Colorado:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (53-46)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (51-48)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats carried Colorado in the last three presidential elections. Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the state by 5 points.
Among Democratic voters in Colorado:
Bernie Sanders: 26%
Joe Biden: 25% 
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Kamala Harris: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 5% 
Andrew Yang: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Colorado’s Sen. Michael Bennet gets only 1% of fellow Democrats in his home state to vote for him (which is why he’s not on the above list). That’s quite a blow to his underdog candidacy…. Sanders and Biden are jockeying for first place, though both candidates have lost support since early June…. Sanders’ base of support in Colorado is among 18-29 year olds, where he gets 42%. He leads 30-49 year olds with 34% and only gets 12% from those over 50. Biden wins those over 65 with 43%, but gets 18% of 18-29 year olds. Warren’s support is more consistent among age cohorts…. Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Colorado primary 59-40. Of Democrats who voted for Clinton in the 2016 primary, 45% now support Biden, 21% favor Warren, 14% vote for Harris, and 4% support Sanders. Among Democrats in Colorado who voted for Sanders in 2016, 53% stay with him, 24% favor Warren, 9% support Biden and 3% vote for Harris.

Among voters statewide

Among all general election voters in Nevada:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (49-43)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (47-44)
Donald Trump (R) and Kamala Harris (D): even (45-45) 
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Cory Booker (D): +2 (46-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +4 (46-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders lead Trump in Nevada, but Trump leads or ties the others. Hillary Clinton beat Trump in Nevada by 2 points in 2016. Democrats won the state in the last three presidential elections.
Among Democratic voters in Nevada:
Joe Biden: 25% 
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Tom Steyer: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 5% 
Cory Booker: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Bill de Blasio: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Michael Bennet: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden is well ahead with Warren leading Sanders. Steyer moves up to 6%.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
HISTORICAL JOB RATINGS: Gallup Presidential Job Approval 
COLORADO: Emerson, Aug. 16-19
NEVADA: Gravis, Aug. 14-16
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14

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