Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, August 19, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from %43 (WSJ/NBC, Fox News, Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen). The fifth poll had it at 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
EXCLUSIVE: EPSTEIN’S DEATH
Among adults nationwide
Based on what you’ve heard, seen or read, do you think Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide, or do you think he was murdered?
Committed suicide: 37%
Murdered: 35%
Not sure: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: Despite reports that Epstein took his own life, Americans are split on whether Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide or was murdered. More Republicans think Epstein was murdered (40%) than do Democrats (32%) or independents (33%). The survey was conducted by Certus Insights.
IF ANSWERED “COMMITTED SUICIDE,” THEN ASKED: Do you think Epstein was able to kill himself because prison guards intentionally gave him the opportunity to do it––yes or no?
Yes: 53%
No: 24%
Not sure: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: A 53% majority of those who say Epstein killed himself, according to this new Certus poll, thinks he was able to do so because prison guards intentionally gave him the opportunity to do so. More Republicans think prison guards gave him the opportunity than do Democrats (61% vs. 49%).
IF ANSWERED “MURDERED,” THEN ASKED: Do you think that a well-known public figure had Epstein killed to stop him from testifying against them––yes or no?
Yes: 83%
No: 3%
Not sure: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: An overwhelming 83% majority of those who think Epstein was murdered believe that a “well-known public figure had Epstein killed to stop him from testifying” against them. There was no difference between Democrats or Republicans on this question.
TRUMP AND RECENT SHOOTINGS
Among adults nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the aftermath of the recent mass shootings at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas and a bar in Dayton, Ohio?
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 52%
Don’t know: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: In addition to these results, this survey also finds that 40% of Americans polled believe the language President Trump uses in his speeches and tweets bears a “great deal” of responsibility for the shootings. An additional 14% says “a good deal” of responsibility. However, mental illness, social media, assault weapons and media coverage are all seen as bearing even more responsibility.
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK
Among adults nationwide
Now, all in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 33%
Wrong track: 60%
RON’S COMMENT: In October, 2016, during the final weeks of the last presidential election, right direction was 29% and wrong track was 65%. Weeks before Obama’s re-election in 2012, it was 41% right direction and 54% wrong track.
TRUMP ON THE ECONOMY
Among adults statewide
Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing in handling the economy?
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 46%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s approval on the economic slipped two points since early May, when it was 51%. His disapproval went up 5 points, from 41% to 46%.
BIDEN’S RATINGS
Among adults statewide
Joe Biden’s ratings:
August 2019:
34% positive, 25% neutral, 38% negative
January, 2018:
54% positive, 22% neutral, 22% negative
RON’S COMMENT: The perils of candidacy––over the last 20 months, Joe Biden’s positive rating has taken a 20-point hit among all adults (including Republicans, independents and Democrats), dropping from 54% to 34%. His negative rating also shot up, going from 22% to 38%.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
EPSTEIN: Certus Insights, Aug. 13-16
SHOOTINGS, RIGHT DIRECTION, TRUMP ON THE ECONOMY, BIDEN: WSJ/NBC News, Aug. 10-14
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