LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Warren Leads Iowa, Wisconsin Polls – Trump vs. Dems

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 16, 2019

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Morning Consult) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

Among all general election voters
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (50-38)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (48-39)
Elizabeth Warren (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (46-39)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (45-39)
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll is good news for Democrats, showing them beating Trump by clear margins. Trump doesn’t hit 40% in any of the trial heats. In the race against Biden, Trump loses every group except Republicans, which he wins 84-8, and whites, which he wins by 1 point. Biden beats Trump among blacks 84-2. This poll also shows Biden capturing 7% of Trump voters from 2016.
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Biden and Warren on top, with Warren pulling away from the rest of the field. Since three weeks ago, this survey shows Biden down 2 points, Sanders down 5 points, Warren up 8 points and Harris down 2 points…. In this data, Warren is doing much better with whites than blacks (25% vs. 8%). Biden does better with blacks than whites (37% vs. 31%)…. Warren beats Biden among whites with a college degree (33-29), while Biden beats Warren among whites without a college degree (34-15)…. Yesterday, the HarrisX poll showed a different result, with Sanders second and Warren a distant third.

Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 28%
Joe Biden: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Steve Bullock: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Warren with the momentum in Iowa, going up 16 points since May. Biden and Sanders have each dropped 7 points since May. Note that Buttigieg remains a player in Iowa.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Joe Biden: 20%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Warren doing well. 

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 50% (+2 since last week)
Trump: 39% (same as last week)
It depends: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 9 points last week, now it’s 11 points. Note that this poll from The Economist/YouGov pegs Trump’s general election strength at 39%, which is about what the Fox News trial heats against named opponents show (see above).

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Fox News, Aug. 11-13
IOWA: Change Research/Starting Line, Aug. 9-11
WISCONSIN: Change Research/Crooked Media, Aug. 9-11
GENERIC DEMOCRAT: Economist/YouGov, Aug. 10-13
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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