LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tariffs – National Unity – NRA – South Carolina

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 15, 2019

Down 1 from yestereday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Morning Consult) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 31%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Steve Bullock: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Marianne Williamson: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Hill/HarrisX survey shows Biden down 3 points, Sanders down 4 points, Warren down 2 points and Harris down 2 points from two weeks ago. This poll has generally shown Warren with lower numbers than most other polls…. Biden leads among white Democrats with 32% and among black Democrats with 43%. Sanders leads among Hispanic Democrats with 34%. Biden polls only 12% of Hispanics in this poll.

Among voters statewide

Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +1 (45-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +2 (46-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +3 (46-43)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +6 (47-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This Civitas poll shows Trump edging four Democrats in North Carolina, a state that has become a general election battleground. The survey also shows Trump losing women by substantial margins to all four Democrats. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by 4 points. 

Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 36%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Cory Booker: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden maintains a strong lead in the important South Carolina primary. Warren is a distant second and Sanders is third. Since June, Buttigieg fell from third to fifth place. Despite heavy campaigning in the state, Booker remains in sixth place. 

Among voters nationwide

Do you think Donald Trump is drawing the country together or tearing the country apart?
Drawing the country together: 31%
Tearing the country apart: 59%
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll finds that 92% of Democrats, 19% of Republicans and 59% of independents believe the president is tearing the country apart.

Among voters nationwide

Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of the NRA or National Rifle Association?
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 44% of men, 39% of women, 16% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and 41% of independents have favorable feelings toward the NRA.

Among voters nationwide

In general, do you think imposing tariffs or fees on products imported from other
countries helps the U.S. economy, hurts the economy, or doesn’t make much of a difference either way?
Helps: 29%
Hurts: 46%
No difference: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: Since June, the percentage of voters in the Fox News poll saying “helps” has declined from 33% to 29%. Now, 12% of Democrats, 51% of Republicans and 22% of independents say “helps.”

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas, Aug. 1-4
SOUTH CAROLINA: Post & Courier/Change, Aug. 9-12
TARIFFS, NRA, UNITY: Fox News, Aug. 11-13
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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