Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 7, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters, IBD/TIPP) to 49% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll had it at 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (+2 since last Thursday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Quinnipiac/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 32%/33% = 32.5
Elizabeth Warren: 21%/15% = 18
Bernie Sanders: 14%/19% = 16.5
Kamala Harris: 7%/9% = 8
Pete Buttigieg: 5%/6% = 5.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/3% = 2.5
Cory Booker: 2%/3% = 2.5
Andrew Yang: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since the last round of debates, Biden remains on top with Warren in second place, based on the average of these two polls. In the Quinnipiac poll, Warren went from 15% to 21% and Harris dropped from 12% to 7%. While Booker’s debate performance was praised, it did not translate into many additional votes.
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This post-debate poll has Biden on top in New Hampshire with Sanders second and Warren third. Numbers have been bouncing around in this first-in-the-nation primary, but usually show Biden first with Sanders and Warren vying for second place.
TEXAS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters in Texas
Joe Biden: 28%
Beto O’Rourke: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to lead in the home state of O’Rourke, who runs second. This poll is bad news for Castro––to be a national player he needs to be doing much better in his home state than a weak eighth place. While Castro’s debate performances were generally praised, they have not translated into votes.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, August 1-5; Morning Consult/Politico, August 1-4
NEW HAPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Boston Globe/Suffolk, August 1-4
TEXAS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: Emerson College, August 1-3
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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