Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, July 19, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Politico-Morning Consult) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
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TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 46% (-3 since last week)
Trump: 42% (+4 since last week)
It depends: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: Over the past week, there has been a considerable shift favoring Trump. The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by only 4 points, that’s down from 11 points last week.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Kamala Harris: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden remains on top in this poll, with Warren, Sanders and Harris battling for second place. It was taken between July 2-16, which is a long interview window.
U.S. SENATOR JOB RATINGS
Among voters in each state
% = Approve/Disapprove
TOP 10
Maine, Angus King (I): 62%/28%
Vermont, Bernie Sanders (I): 62%/32%
Vermont, Patrick Leahy (D): 61%/24%
North Dakota, John Hoeven (R): 57%/22%
Wyoming, John Barrasso (R): 57%/26%
Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar (D): 56%/30%
Wyoming, Michael Enzi (R): 54%/25%
South Dakota, John Thune (R): 54%/32%
New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54%/34%
Massachusetts, Ed Markey (D): 53%/23%
UPPER MIDDLE
South Dakota, Mike Rounds (R): 53%/30%
Utah, Mitt Romney (R): 53%/32%
South Carolina, Tim Scott (R): 52% /21%
Hawaii, Brian Schatz (D): 52%/24%
Delaware, Chris Coons (D): 52%/29%
New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan (D): 52%/33%
Rhode Island, Jack Reed (D): 51%/28%
Maryland, Ben Cardin (D): 50%/22%
Delaware, Thomas Carper (D): 50%/29%
Montana, Steve Daines (R): 50%/29%
South Carolina, Lindsey Graham (R): 50%/33%
Arkansas, John Boozman (R): 49%/25%
Idaho, Michael Crapo (R): 49%/29%
Nebraska, Ben Sasse (R): 49%/32%
Connecticut, Chris Murphy (D): 49%/34%
Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren (D): 49%/41%
Georgia, David Perdue (R): 48%/26%
Oregon, Ron Wyden (D): 48%/27%
Washington, Maria Cantwell (D): 48%/28%
Utah, Mike Lee (R): 48%/30%
Virginia, Mark Warner (D): 48%/30%
MIDDLE
Arkansas, Tom Cotton (R): 48%/31%
Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 48%/34%
Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin (D): 48%/35%
Texas, Ted Cruz (R): 48%/36%
Louisiana, John Kennedy (R): 47%/25%
New Jersey, Cory Booker (D): 47%/ 34%
North Dakota, Kevin Cramer (R): 47%/34%
New York, Chuck Schumer (D): 47%/35%
Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal (D): 47%/37%
Montana, Jon Tester (D): 47%/40%
Maryland, Chris Van Hollen (D): 46%/21%
Idaho, James Risch (R): 46%/28%
Alabama, Richard Shelby (R): 46%/29%
Washington, Patty Murray (D): 46%/30%
Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema (D): 46% /30%
West Virginia, Shelley Capito (R): 46%/32%
Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R): 46%/34%
Hawaii, Mazie Hirono (D): 46%/34%
Florida, Marco Rubio (R): 46%/34%
Florida, Rick Scott (R): 46%/36%
Nebraska, Deb Fischer (R): 46%/38%
Louisiana, Bill Cassidy (R): 45%/26%
Oregon, Jeff Merkley (D): 45%/28%
Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D): 45% /30%
Michigan, Debbie Stabenow (D): 45%/34%
West Virginia, Joe Manchin (D):45%/42%
Maine, Susan Collins (R): 45%/48%
Oklahoma, James Inhofe (R): 44%/28%
Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R): 44%/29%
Pennsylvania, Bob Casey (D):44%/30%
California, Kamala Harris (D): 44%/31%
New Mexico, Tom Udall (D): 44%/33%
Virginia, Tim Kaine (D): 44%/35%
Iowa, Chuck Grassley (R): 44%/39%
Texas, John Cornyn (R): 43%/25%
Oklahoma, James Lankford (R): 43%/27%
Minnesota, Tina Smith (D): 43%/27%
New York, Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 43%/31%
Tennessee, Lamar Alexander (R): 43%/32%
Mississippi, Roger Wicker (R): 43%/32%
LOWER MIDDLE
California, Dianne Feinstein (D): 43%/36%
Georgia, Johnny Isakson (R): 42%/25%
Indiana, Mike Braun (R): 42%/ 27%
Illinois, Tammy Duckworth (D): 42%/32%
Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R): 42%/35%
New Mexico, Martin Heinrich (D): 42%/36%
Iowa, Joni Ernst (R):42% /38%
Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D): 41%/32%
Wisconsin, Ron Johnson (R): 41%/32%
Alaska, Lisa Murkowski (R): 41%/40%
Indiana, Todd Young (R): 40%/25%
Missouri, Josh Hawley (R): 40%/32%
Nevada, Jacky Rosen (D): 40%/33%
Illinois, Dick Durbin (D): 40%/35%
Arizona, Martha McSally (R): 40%/37%
Kentucky, Rand Paul (R): 40%/39%
Kansas, Jerry Moran (R): 39%/29%
Colorado, Michael Bennet (D): 39%/32%
Ohio, Rob Portman (R): 39%/32%
BOTTOM 10
Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey (R): 39%/35%
Alabama, Doug Jones (D): 39%/37%
North Carolina, Richard Burr (R): 38%/32%
Kansas, Pat Roberts (R): 37%/35%
Colorado, Cory Gardner (R): 37%/37%
Missouri, Roy Blunt (R): 37%/39%
Kentucky, Mitch McConnell (R): 36%/50%
Michigan, Gary Peters (D): 34%/27%
New Jersey, Bob Menendez (D): 34%/42%
North Carolina, Thom Tillis (R): 33%/35%
Current presidential candidates in bold
RON’S COMMENT: Of the 10 most popular senators in their home states, four are Republicans, four are Democrats and two are independents who caucus with Democrats. Of the 10 least popular, seven are Republicans and three are Democrats…. Eight of the top 10 are from small states…. Among senators who are currently Democratic presidential candidates (in bold on list), Sanders (62%) and Klobuchar (56%) are the most popular. Bennet has the lowest rating in his home state of any White House contender (39%)…. These are the senators most likely to have the toughest races in 2020:
- McConnell (36%/50%), Peters (34%/27%), Gardner (37%/37%), Jones (39%/37%) and Tillis (33%/35%) have job approval ratings under 40%.
- Collins is over 40% but is net negative (45%/48%). Her rating worsened over the past three months.
- McSally has a 40% approval rating but her disapproval is not far behind at 37%.
- Tina Smith has an approval rating 16 points above her disapproval (43%/27%), which makes her harder to beat.
- McConnelli s the only incumbent with a disapproval rating that hits 50%.
- This data is based on surveys conducted between April 1 and June 30, 2019. As such, some of the data is stale and may not provide a usable current reading.
APPROVAL OF CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job?
Approve: 15%
Neither approve nor disapprove: 12%
Disapprove: 65%
RON’S COMMENT: 16% of Democrats, 11% of independents and 22% of Republicans approve of the job Congress is doing.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, APPROVAL OF CONGRESS: The Economist, July 14-16
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: NBC/Survey Monkey, July 2-16
U.S. SENATOR JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, April 1-June 30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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