Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, July 18, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. The range is 40% (Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% (-1 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval.
A MESSAGE FROM CERTUS INSIGHTS
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NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 25% (+3 from last week)
Elizabeth Warren: 16% (-2)
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Kamala Harris: 11% (-4)
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Cory Booker: 3% (+1)
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Bill de Blasio: 2% (+1)
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since last week in this poll, Biden, Booker and de Blasio are up and Harris and Warren are down. Biden improved the most and Harris slipped the most. Could it be that the race is slowly reverting to where it was before the debates?
RATING “THE SQUAD”
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?
Among all voters:
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez: 37%/47%
Rashida Tlaib: 28%/37%
Ilhan Omar: 29%/40%
Ayana Pressley: 23%/20%
Among Democrats:
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez: 59%/19%
Rashida Tlaib: 43%/13%
Ilhan Omar: 44%/15%
Ayana Pressley: 35%/10%
Among independents:
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez: 27%/39%
Rashida Tlaib: 18%/32%
Ilhan Omar: 18%/35%
Ayana Pressley: 16%/18%
RON’S COMMENT: Three of the four Democratic House members known as “The Squad” have net negative favorability ratings among all voters. All four are net negative among independents. However, they all have high net positive ratings among Democrats. Ratings among Republicans are predictably awful: Ocasio-Cortez, for example, is 10% favorable/71% unfavorable among Republicans.
SPACE EXPLORATION
Among voters nationwide
Should government funding of space exploration be increased, kept the same or decreased?
Increased: 42%
Kept the same: 32%
Decreased: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: There are only small differences by partisanship, although Republicans are slightly more in favor of increasing space exploration funding than are Democrats.
WHAT AMERICANS BELIEVE
Among voters statewide
Do you think the following statements are true or not true?
The Earth is flat.
True: 10%
Not true: 90%
RON’S COMMENT: 19% of adults 18-29 years old say the earth is flat. Only 3% of those 65 and older say so.
Vaccines have been shown to cause autism.
True: 20%
Not true: 79%
RON’S COMMENT: 14% of Democrats, 21% of independents and 28% of Republicans say it’s true.
Leaked email from some of Hillary Clinton’s campaign staffers contained code words for pedophilia, human trafficking and satanic ritual abuse––what some people refer to as ’Pizzagate’.
True: 35%
Not true: 65%
RON’S COMMENT: 17% of Democrats, 35% of independents and 58% of Republicans say it’s true.
President Obama was born in Kenya.
True: 34%
Not true: 65%
RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Democrats, 35% of independents and 56% of Republicans say it’s true.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, RATING “THE SQUAD,” SPACE EXPLORATION, WHAT AMERICANS BELIEVE: The Economist/YouGov, July 14-16
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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