Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, July 17, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 40% (Morning Consult) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
CHECK OUT THE NEW MEHLMAN CASTAGNETTI QUARTERLY ANALYSIS
Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas puts out an eagerly-anticipated & widely-read quarterly analysis on politics and policy. Their latest examines how the 2020 elections might impact the future of US politics: For the analysis, click here.
CALIFORNIA: PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
% = Quinnipiac/Capitol Weekly = Average
Kamala Harris: 23%/20% = 21.5
Joe Biden: 21%/20% = 20.5
Elizabeth Warren: 16%/25% = 20.5
Bernie Sanders: 18%/16% = 17
Pete Buttigieg: 3%/8% = 5.5
Beto O’Rourke: 1%/2% = 1.5
Andrew Yang: 2%/ – = 1
Candidates with 1% or less in both not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The average of these two polls from California show a close three-way race with Harris edging the field and Biden and Warren tied for second place. The Capitol Weekly poll shows Warren and Buttigieg doing much better than does the Quinnipiac survey…. In the Quinnipiac poll, Biden leads Harris among women by 1 point, but Harris leads Biden among men by 6 points. Harris is winning whites over Biden by 3 points and Sanders is winning Hispanics over Biden by 2 points.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: PRIMARY
Among primary voters statewide
Among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This CNN/UNH poll paints a somewhat different picture of the New Hampshire primary than the St. Anselm poll we reported yesterday. The St. Anselm poll had Biden, Harris and Warren bunched together at the top. The CNN poll has Biden first with Warren and Sanders tied for second. It also shows Harris fifth, slightly behind Buttigieg. Other findings:
- There’s a whole lotta candidate shopping going on in New Hampshire: 64% of primary voters say they’re still trying to decide whom to support. Only 16% have definitely decided. This means the numbers could easily, and radically, change over time.
- Second choice: Warren leads among second choice votes with 22% and Sanders is second at 20%.
- Favorability: This poll pegs Warren and Sanders with the highest favorable ratings (67%) followed by Biden (57%) and Harris (54%).
- Likeability:When asked which candidate is the most likeable, Biden and Sanders are on top with 20% each, Buttigieg is next at 18%, Harris is third at 5% and Warren is fourth at 4%. Biden’s likeability has declined 11 points since February.
- Electability: Most voters (45%) see Biden as most likely to beat Trump. Second is Sanders at 16%.
- Issues: Healthcare, climate change and immigration are seen by Democrats as the top three issues. Interestingly, not one Democrat polled says national security is the top issue and only 6% say foreign relations. Of the candidates, Sanders is seen as the one best able to handle the healthcare issue. Warren is a distant second and Biden is third. Sanders also wins on climate change.
- Debates: 36% think Harris won the first debate and 13% said Warren. Most New Hampshire Democrats think Warren did second best. Also: 15% say the debates changed their mind about which candidate to support.
Among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire
- Donald Trump runs first with 86% of the GOP primary vote and William Weld is second at 7%.
- Trump is getting stronger––in February he drew 68% of Republican primary voters, now he’s getting 86%.
- But… 47% of New Hampshire Republicans prefer Trump face opposition in the primary while 39% prefer he runs unopposed.
- Trump’s rating among New Hampshire Republicans is 84% favorable/10% unfavorable with 5% neutral.
ECONOMIC ANXIETY
Based on Gallup polling data
Edited excerpts from report by V. Lance Tarrance:
- Americans can be grouped into four major categories according to their pattern of financial worries: About half (49%) have at least one immediate worry such as paying their rent or mortgage, making the minimum payments on their credit cards or paying their normal monthly bills…. 14% have no immediate financial concerns, but do worry about one or both healthcare issues: paying for normal healthcare or paying the medical costs involved with a major illness or accident…. 10% have no immediate or healthcare worries, but have financial anxiety related to longer-term issues: affording retirement and/or paying for a child’s college…. All others go into a non-worry group which represents about a quarter of the public (27%).
- Those with immediate cash flow concerns tend to be Democrats and disapprove of Trump while those with no concerns are mostly Republicans and approve of Trump. But those with healthcare-specific anxiety or fear of their long-term financial stability are more evenly split politically. This means that these two broad areas could be pivotal in the 2020 elections as their impact could benefit either political party.
- 40% of Americans say they are either running into debt or barely making ends meet. Personal financial anxiety is even greater among employed households when considering that only 25% of this group report they are saving enough for retirement. Almost as many admit they have saved nothing at all (18%).
- While the percentage of Americans rating the economy “only fair” or “poor” has dropped 27 points between two April surveys in 2016 and 2019, most of their personal financial worries declined by only a few points. In other words, as the economy has improved during Trump’s presidency, Americans’ anxiety about most financial matters has not. This includes the core middle class concerns of paying for normal healthcare, paying for children’s college and paying for rent or mortgage.
- Over 50% of Americans are very or moderately concerned about paying for catastrophic healthcare and about their retirement savings, which could offset voters’ satisfaction with the current U.S. economic picture.
- Those most concerned about catastrophic healthcare costs includes a substantial proportion of Republicans who apparently are still waiting for a better national solution than the current one.
- Despite the positive national economic picture in the country today, Gallup data exposes an abundance of personal anxieties that will need to be addressed.
- For the full report, click here.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CALIFORNIA: Quinnipiac, July 10-15; Capitol Weekly, a rolling average
NEW HAMPSHIRE: CNN/UNH, July 8-15
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