Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, July 16, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = HarrisX/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 29%/32% = 33.5
Bernie Sanders: 16%/19% = 17.5
Kamala Harris: 11%/13% = 12
Elizabeth Warren: 9%/14% = 11.5
Pete Buttigieg: 1%/5% = 3
Beto O’Rourke: 3%/3% = 3
Cory Booker: 1%/2% = 1.5
Andrew Yang: – /2% = 1
Candidates with 1% or less in both not listed
RON’S COMMENT: In the Morning Consult poll, Biden and Warren have each moved up 1 point since last week and Harris and Buttigieg have each moved down 1 point. Yang is also up 1…. In their subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 33%, then Sanders 22%, Warren and Harris each with 11%…. Among voters who pick Biden, 27% pick Sanders as their second choice, 18% pick Harris and 16% pick Warren…. The Hill/HarrisX poll shows all the major candidates with less support than the Morning Consult poll. It also has Buttigieg down to 1%, below O’Rourke. But Morning Consult has Buttigieg over O’Rourke 5-3.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 21%
Kamala Harris: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 12%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Marianne Williamson: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire poll shows a three-way contest at the top, with Biden, Harris and Warren leading. It also shows Buttigieg running above Sanders and Yang up to 5%…. Among voters who are most interested in the race, Warren and Harris lead with 20% each and Biden is third at 19%…. Among the most liberal voters, Warren beats Sanders 23-14…. Biden’s favorability rating in the state has weakened, it is now 62% favorable/26% unfavorable. In April, it was 70% favorable/18% unfavorable. Warren, who represents the neighboring state of Massachusetts in the Senate, is now 66% favorable/20% unfavorable (better than Biden). She’s improved from April when she was 58% favorable/30% unfavorable. Harris also has a better rating than Biden, 65% favorable/12% unfavorable.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which current Democratic presidential candidate received a degree in political science and communications from Stanford, a law degree from Harvard and worked as an intern in the Clinton White House?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico-Morning Consult, July 8-14; The Hill-HarrisX, July 8-9
NEW HAMPSHIRE: St. Anselm, July 10-12
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Julian Castro.
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