Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, July 15, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same a Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 47% (The Hill-HarrisX). Without these extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from Friday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (51-42)
Bernie Sanders (D-I) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (50-43)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (48-43)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (45-44)
RON’S COMMENT: This new poll shows all four Democrats tested leading Trump. As other polls show, Biden does best, although Sanders isn’t far back. These numbers are also good for Warren, who beats Trump by 5 points. Of the three previous polls, one had Warren losing to Trump by 2 points, one had it a tie and one had Warren ahead by 2 points.
AVERAGE (based on last four national polls):
Biden over Trump: +7.3
Sanders over Trump: +4.8
Warren over Trump: +1.3
Harris over Trump: +0.5
RON’S COMMENT: When the last four polls are averaged, all of these Democrats have a lead over Trump. Biden has the biggest advantage and Harris has the smallest.
EQUAL PAY FOR WOMEN AND MEN
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the federal government should take a more active role to ensure equal pay for men and women who are doing the same job, or do you think the government is already doing enough?
Take a more active role to ensure equal pay for men and women who are doing the same job: 64%
The federal government is already doing enough: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: 87% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans, 73% of women and 57% of men say the federal government should take a more active role to ensure equal pay.
MEGAN RAPINOE: FAVORABILITY
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of [Megan Rapinoe]?
Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats are 41% favorable/11% unfavorable, Republicans are 20% favorable/29% unfavorable, men are 30% favorable/24% unfavorable and women are 23% favorable/16% unfavorable toward soccer star Rapinoe.
SUMMER VACATION
Among adults nationwide
How confident are you that you will take a summer vacation this year? Would you say…
Very or somewhat confident: 42%
Not at all or not very confident: 32%
Won’t take a summer vacation (will take or have taken vacation at some other time of year): 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 42% is the lowest level of confidence about taking a summer vacation in six years.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: WSJ/NBC, July 7-9
EQUAL PAY FOR WOMEN AND MEN, RAPINOE:The Economist/YouGov, July 7-9
SUMMER VACATION: Ipsos, May 30-June 2
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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