Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, July 10, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (PPP-D) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (53-47)
Bernie Sanders (D-I) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +2 (51-49)
RON’S COMMENT: Good news for Biden, he remains the strongest Democrat against Trump. But, over the past two weeks, the president’s general election numbers in this poll have improved against Biden and other potential Democratic rivals. In this poll, pre-debate, Biden was beating Trump by 10 points. Now the margin is down to 6 points. Trump leads Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris by 2 points each after trailing them all two weeks ago. The poll director’s report concludes, “It looks like Trump was a winner from the Democratic debate, as his head-to-heads tightened by about 5 points against all the leading Democratic candidates.” That’s good news for Trump. The more Democratic debates they have, some Republican and even some Democratic operatives are saying privately, the stronger Trump will get. The July 30-31 debates will further test that hypothesis.
Voting issues: 29% of Democratic primary voters in this poll chose healthcare as the most important issue, followed by social issues at 22% and the economy at 14%…. 42% of Republican primary voters chose the economy as the most important issue followed by immigration at 25%.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 22% (-1 from last week)
Elizabeth Warren: 18% (-1)
Kamala Harris: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 12% (+3)
Pete Buttigieg: 6% (-2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3% (+2)
Cory Booker: 2%
Julian Castro: 2% (+1)
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Warren in second place with Harris third and Sanders fourth. That’s the same order it had last week as well. Biden maintains first place, but by only 4 points.
HEALTH INSURANCE, DRUG ADS
Among adults nationwide
Mandatory health insurance: Do you think a law requiring people to have health insurance or else pay a tax penalty violates the Constitution?
Yes, violates Constitution: 44%
No, does not violate Constitution: 35%
Don’t know: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: 26% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans say requiring people to have health insurance or pay a penalty violates the Constitution.
Drug Ads: Do you think prescription drug makers should or should not be required to disclose their prices in TV advertisements?
Should be required to disclose prices: 68%
Should not be required to disclose prices: 16%
Don’t know: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: Finally, something both parties and independents agree on: 71% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans and 69% say drug makers should be required to disclose their prices in TV ads.
SELLING A HOME: HOW STRESSFUL?
Among adults nationwide
Key findings from the survey:
- 77% of Americans who have sold a home in the past three years say the experience of selling was stressful for them. Selling a home is viewed as more stressful than buying a home (72%), planning a wedding (60%), getting fired (58%), becoming a parent (58%), teaching a teenager to drive (53%) and potty training a child (47%).
- Those most likely to describe the home selling process as stressful include adults under the age of 35 (82% vs. 73% of those age 55+), those with no children living at home (79% vs. 68% of those with children), and those who say the home selling process took longer than they expected (84% vs. 72% of those who felt the process took about as long as expected).
- Most Americans say the uncertainty of selling for the desired price (70%) or within the desired timeframe (69%), packing up their belongings (67%), worrying about buyer offers falling through (65%) and making improvements to prepare the home for sale (65%) all added to the stress felt during this process.
- While 24% say the home-selling process took about as long as they expected it would, 34% say it took longer and 34% say it took less time than they expected.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Emerson College, July 6-8
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, July 7-9
HEALTH INSURANCE, DRUG ADS: YouGov, July 9
SELLING A HOME: Ipsos/Zillow, May 3-17
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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